IMF Wraps Fourth Review of Sri Lanka Fund Facility

  • The IMF Executive Board completed the Fourth Review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility with Sri Lanka, providing the country with immediate access to SDR 254 million (about US$350 million) to support Sri Lanka's economic policies and reforms.
  • Performance under the program has been generally strong with some implementation risks being addressed. Prior actions on restoring cost-recovery electricity pricing for the rest of 2025 and operationalizing automatic electricity tariff adjustment were met. All quantitative targets for end-March 2025, except the stock of expenditure arrears, were met. All structural benchmarks due by end-May 2025 were either met or implemented with delay. 2025Q2 inflation fell below the lower outer band of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause largely due to energy prices. Debt restructuring is nearly complete.
  • The economic outlook remains positive. However, global trade policy uncertainties pose significant risks to Sri Lanka's macroeconomic and social stability. If these shocks materialize, the authorities will work closely with staff to assess the impact and formulate policy responses within the contours of the program.

Washington, DC: On July 1, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fourth review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw SDR254 million (about US$350 million). This brings the total IMF financial support disbursed so far to SDR1.27 billion (about US$1.74 billion). [1]

The EFF arrangement for Sri Lanka was approved by the Executive Board on March 20, 2023 (see Press Release No. 23/79) in an amount of SDR 2.286 billion (395 percent of quota or about US$3 billion). The program supports Sri Lanka's efforts to durably restore macroeconomic stability by (i) restoring fiscal and debt sustainability while protecting the vulnerable, (ii) safeguarding price and financial sector stability, (iii) rebuilding external buffers, (iv) strengthening governance and reducing corruption vulnerabilities, and (v) enhancing growth-oriented structural reforms.

The Executive Board reviewed a report from the Managing Director on the inadvertent provision of inaccurate data by Sri Lanka on the ceiling of the central government's stock of expenditure arrears. The under-reporting of the arrears stock identified through a detailed analysis of budget line appropriations gave rise to noncomplying purchases and a breach of Sri Lanka's obligations under Article VIII, Section 5. The authorities have worked openly and closely with IMF staff to provide corrected data and have undertaken several corrective measures related to the clearing and reporting of arrears. They are also committed to improving reporting and data verification practices going forward in line with IMF technical assistance. Based on these actions, the Executive Board approved the authorities' request for waivers of non-observance.

The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. [2]

Following the Executive Board's discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

"Sri Lanka's performance under the Fund-supported arrangement is generally strong with some implementation risks being addressed. Reforms are bearing fruit, with economic growth strengthening, inflation remaining low, reserves accumulating, and fiscal revenues improving. The debt restructuring process is nearing completion. The economic outlook is positive, but downside risks have increased. In case shocks materialize, the authorities should work closely with the Fund to assess the impact and formulate policy responses within the contours of the program. Steadfast program implementation will be crucial.

"Sustained revenue mobilization is critical to restoring fiscal sustainability and creating fiscal space. Strengthening tax exemption frameworks, boosting tax compliance, and enhancing public financial management to ensure effective arrears management are important. Further improving the coverage and targeting of social support to the vulnerable is also necessary. A smoother execution of capital spending within the fiscal envelope would help foster medium-term growth. The restoration of cost-recovery electricity pricing and the operationalization of automatic electricity tariffs adjustment are commendable and should be maintained to contain fiscal risks.

"The progress to advance the restructuring of Sri Lanka's debt is noteworthy. Timely finalization of bilateral agreements with remaining official and commercial creditors is a priority.

"Monetary policy should continue to prioritize price stability, supported by sustained commitment to eliminate monetary financing and safeguard central bank independence. Greater exchange rate flexibility and gradually phasing out administrative balance of payments measures remain critical to rebuild external buffers and economic resilience.

"Resolving non-performing loans, strengthening governance and oversight of state-owned banks, and improving the insolvency and resolution frameworks are important to revive credit growth and support private sector development.

"Structural reforms are crucial to unlock Sri Lanka's potential. The government should continue to implement governance reforms and advance trade-facilitation reforms to boost export growth and diversification."

Following the Executive Board's discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

"The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reviewed noncomplying purchases made by Sri Lanka under the 2023 Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility ("EFF"), as well as a breach of obligations under Article VIII, Section 5. The noncomplying purchases arose as a result of the provision of inaccurate information by the authorities on the stock of expenditure arrears at the first, second, and third reviews under the EFF.

"The inaccuracies in information provided to the IMF were inadvertent and arose because of weaknesses in the timely reporting of arrears by line ministries to the Ministry of Finance, as well as a misunderstanding by the authorities of the definition of "arrears" under the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

"The Executive Board positively considered the authorities' corrective actions, the fact that arrears repayments will be accommodated within the existing fiscal envelope, and the authorities' commitment to improving public financial management procedures in line with the new PFM law, to reduce the risk of accruing arrears or inaccurate reporting of information going forward. In view of the above, the Executive Board agreed to grant waivers for the nonobservances of the quantitative performance criterion that gave rise to the noncomplying purchases and decided not to require further action in connection with the breach of obligations under Article VIII, Section 5."

Sri Lanka: Selected Economic Indicators 2024-2030

2024

2025

2026

2027

Est.

Projections

GDP and inflation (in percent)

Real GDP

5.0

3.5

3.1

3.1

Inflation (average) 1/

1.2

3.3

5.2

5.0

Inflation (end-of-period) 1/

-1.5

8.9

5.2

5.0

GDP Deflator growth

3.8

3.6

5.3

5.1

Nominal GDP growth

9.0

7.1

8.5

8.4

Savings and investment (in percent of GDP)

National savings

25.2

21.8

22.2

22.9

Government

-3.2

-2.0

-0.8

-0.1

Private

28.4

23.8

23.0

23.0

National investment

27.0

21.8

22.1

22.5

Government

5.0

4.3

4.5

4.6

Private

21.9

17.4

17.6

17.9

Savings-Investment balance

-1.8

0.0

0.1

0.4

Government

-8.2

-6.3

-5.3

-4.6

Private

6.4

6.4

5.4

5.1

Public finance (in percent of GDP)

Revenue and grants

13.7

15.0

15.2

15.3

Expenditure

19.3

20.5

19.7

19.2

Primary balance

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

Central government balance

-5.6

-5.4

-4.5

-3.9

Central government gross financing needs

21.9

22.6

19.6

14.9

Central government debt

100.5

105.1

103.4

100.2

Public debt 2/

105.2

109.6

107.4

103.6

Money and credit (percent change, end of period)

Reserve money

15.8

6.5

8.5

8.4

Broad money

8.6

6.5

8.5

8.4

Domestic credit

4.0

4.5

3.0

3.8

Credit to private sector

10.7

9.4

9.2

9.3

Credit to private sector (adjusted for inflation)

9.5

6.1

4.1

4.3

Credit to central government and public corporations

-1.4

0.0

-3.3

-2.5

Balance of Payments (in millions of U.S. dollars)

Exports

12,772

12,880

13,490

14,194

Imports

-18,828

-21,363

-22,447

-23,578

Current account balance

1,746

-48

-77

-439

Current account balance (in percent of GDP)

1.8

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

Current account balance net of interest (in percent of GDP)

3.7

2.1

2.0

1.7

Export value growth (percent)

7.2

0.8

4.7

5.2

Import value growth (percent)

12.0

13.5

5.1

5.0

Gross official reserves (end of period)

In millions of U.S. dollars

6,122

7,255

9,273

12,974

In months of prospective imports of goods & services

3.0

3.3

4.0

5.4

In percent of ARA composite metric

50.5

60.3

75.5

100.0

Usable Gross official reserves (end of period) 3/

In millions of U.S. dollars

4,686

7,255

9,273

12,974

In months of prospective imports of goods & services

2.3

3.3

4.0

5.4

In percent of ARA composite metric

38.6

60.3

75.5

100.0

External debt (public and private)

In billions of U.S. dollars

53.9

54.6

56.3

59.9

As a percent of GDP

54.4

55.1

58.6

59.4

Memorandum items:

Nominal GDP (in billions of rupees)

29,899

32,036

34,754

37,664

Exchange Rate (period average)

302.0

Exchange Rate (end of period)

293.0

Sources: Data provided by the Sri Lankan authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

1/ Colombo CPI.

2/ Comprising central government debt, publicly guaranteed debt, and CBSL external liabilities (i.e., Fund credit outstanding and international currency swap arrangements). The debt statistics currently assume the external debt restructuring to have been completed at end 2023.

3/ Excluding PBOC swap ($1.4bn in 2022) which becomes usable once GIR rise above 3 months of previous year's import cover.

[1] SDR figures are converted at the market rate of U.S. dollar per SDR on the day of the Board approval.

[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/srilanka page.

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