International Migration 13 August

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia - year ended December 2023
Change to training data period
Latest revisions
Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the June 2024 year compared with the June 2023 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 204,500 (± 1,200), down 1 percent
• migrant departures: 131,200 (± 1,100), up 33 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 73,300 (± 1,600), compared with a net gain of 108,800 (± 300).

The 131,200 migrant departures in the June 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual migrant arrivals provisionally peaked at 237,800 in the year ended October 2023.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 136,600.

The long-term average for June years (2002 to 2019) before COVID-19 is 119,400 migrant arrivals, 91,600 migrant departures, and a net migration gain of 27,900.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 73,300 in the June 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 128,500 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 55,300 New Zealand citizens.

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended June 2024.

For migrant arrivals in the June 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 43,200 (± 300) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• Philippines: 26,500 (± 200)
• New Zealand: 24,900 (± 300)
• China: 22,400 (± 300)
• Fiji: 8,500 (± 200)
• South Africa: 6,700 (± 100)
• Sri Lanka: 6,400 (± 100).

For migrant departures in the June 2024 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 80,200 (± 900) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 7,200 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 5,400 (± 100)
• Australia: 4,900 (± 200)
• India: 4,000 (± 200)
• United States: 3,400 (± 100).

Citizens of India, Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the June 2024 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 128,500 in the June 2024 year compares with a net migration gain of 144,800 in the June 2023 year. The long-term average for June years (2002 to 2019) is a net migration gain of 47,600 a year.

The June 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 80,200 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record (before 2024) of 72,400 in the February 2012 year
• net migration loss of 55,300, exceeding the previous record (before 2023 to 2024) of 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

For New Zealand citizens, there was an average annual net migration loss of 26,700 in the June years (2002 to 2013) and net migration loss of 6,000 in the June years (2014 to 2019).

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for June 2024 compared with June 2023 were:

• migrant arrivals: 14,700 (± 600), down 27 percent
• migrant departures: 13,700 (± 700), up 56 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 1,000 (± 900), compared with a net gain of 11,500 (± 200).

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia - year ended December 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 27,200 people to Australia in the year ended December 2023. This was made up of 17,300 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 44,500 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged about 30,000 a year during 2004 to 2013, and 3,000 a year during 2014 to 2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended December 2023 was made up of a net loss of 26,700 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 500 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 14,600 in the year ended December 2022, made up of a net loss of 13,600 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,000 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the December 2023 year, 54 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2023 (published in July 2024 and based on provisional data to December 2023) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select 'Tourism', then 'International Travel and Migration - ITM'):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) - this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to June 2024.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) - this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to December 2023. Data for the March 2024 quarter will be available in late-September 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Change to training data period

The release of June 2024 migration estimates this month is the first to use a new training period for the international migration model. This training period uses historical journeys from the 32 most recent finalised months, plus finalised crossings from the four oldest provisional months. For June 2024 estimates, this is the 36 months from July 2020 to June 2023 inclusive.

Since the international migration model was introduced in January 2019 (with estimates for November 2018), a sliding training window of the most recent 36 finalised months was used. For example, for May 2024 estimates (published in July 2024), this was February 2020 to January 2023 inclusive.

The change to a training period using the 32 most recent finalised months, plus finalised crossings from the four oldest provisional months, is largely in response to higher than usual standard errors for provisional estimates from March 2024. The higher standard errors suggested that the training data was less representative of traveller behaviour than it was in previous months. This was related to the increased proportion of historical training data spanning the period of COVID-19 related border restrictions (March 2020 to July 2022).

Adjusting the training window for the international migration model (published 6 August 2024) has more information on the change of training period.

The new training period of 32 finalised months and four provisional months (32+4 period) produced lower estimates of migrant arrivals and migrant departures in the most recent three months in the provisional period (April 2024 to June 2024), compared to the training window of 36 finalised months. Standard errors from March 2024 were much lower with the 32+4 window, suggesting it better represents traveller behaviour.

Text alternative for graph Comparison of model training periods on provisional migration estimates and standard errors, by direction, monthly, February 2023-June 2024.

The new 32+4 training window is expected to reduce standard errors and revisions to estimates for more recent months.

However, introduction of this new window produces a larger than normal initial revision from previously published estimates of migrant arrivals and migrant departures for the April 2024 and May 2024 months, which used the superseded 36 finalised month training window. Latest revisions details the size of revisions for the May 2024 month and year.

There is no impact on finalised migration estimates as the input features and classification algorithm, using the 12/16-month rule, are unchanged.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from March 2023 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to June 2024 contains a history of published migration estimates and revisions.

This month, revisions to the preceding month May 2024 were:

• migrant arrivals down 3,800 (22 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 1,100 (5 percent), with half of revisions upwards and half downwards, over the previous 12 months (May 2023 to April 2024).
• migrant departures down 6,200 (32 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,200 (15 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration up 2,400. The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,000, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternative for graph Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-June 2024.

This month, revisions to the preceding year (ended May 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 11,400 (5 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 4,400 (2 percent), with half of revisions upwards and half downwards, over the previous 12 months (year ended May 2023 to year ended April 2024).
• migrant departures down 12,400 (9 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 4,100 (3 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration up 900. The average revision size to the preceding year was 5,500, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

In October 2023, we resumed publication of seasonally adjusted and trend series for international migration with the release of August 2023 data.

Methodology for bridging seasonally adjusted international travel and migration series impacted by COVID-19 has more information.

In March 2024, with the release of January 2024 data, a methodological change was made to cope with the impact of the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted and trend series up to February 2020 will no longer be revised, to avoid unintended revisions in the historical series caused by recent data.

Text alternatives

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended June 2024
Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of international migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended June 2024. Overall, net migration is 73,300, made up of a net loss of 55,300 New Zealand citizens (based on 24,900 migrant arrivals, a 3 percent increase on the year ended June 2023, and 80,200 migrant departures, a 33 percent increase) and a net gain of 128,500 non-New Zealand citizens (based on 179,600 migrant arrivals, a 2 percent decrease on the year ended June 2023, and 51,000 migrant departures, a 33 percent increase). Estimates are provisional as of 13 August 2024. Source: Stats NZ.

Text alternative for graph Comparison of model training periods on provisional migration estimates and standard errors, by direction, monthly, February 2023-June 2024
Graphs show international migration estimates and standard errors for each month from February 2023 to June 2024. The data is shown in six line graphs arranged in two rows with estimates (top) and standard errors (bottom), by direction, with migrant arrivals (left), migrant departures (middle), and net migration (right). Each panel has two lines, reflecting data from a migration model training window of 32 finalised months and four provisional months (July 2020 to June 2023), and a window of 36 finalised months (March 2020 to February 2023). The vertical axis shows estimated number of migrants (top row), and the standard error (bottom row), respectively. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis. Source: Stats NZ.

Text alternative for graph Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-June 2024
Graphs show monthly revisions to provisional migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for each month from November 2018 to June 2024. The data is shown in three line graphs arranged one after the other vertically, starting with migrant arrivals (top), migrant departures (middle), and net migration (bottom). The vertical axis shows estimated number of migrants. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis. Source: Stats NZ.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration - ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration - DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts - DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals - DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Provisional migration estimates

Comparisons between the June 2024 and 2023 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them - the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.
Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to June 2024 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus changes in the net migration estimates.

Technical enquiries

Dave O'Donovan
03 964 8924
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: July 2024 will be released on 11 September 2024.