The International Organization for Migration (IOM) today appealed for USD 110 million to protect 4.9 million people from the potentially severe impacts of the developing 2026-2027 El Niño, including drought, flooding and extreme heat. The funding would allow IOM and its partners to act before humanitarian needs escalate: strengthening preparedness and early warning, supporting communities facing heightened displacement risks, pre-positioning essential assistance and helping authorities respond rapidly where people are forced to move.
The 2026-2027 El Niño is unfolding in a world that is already warmer than during previous El Niño events. New forecasts released today by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate for the first time a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. As a result, some areas may face severe drought, while others could experience heavier rainfall, flooding and extreme heat. For communities already struggling with conflict, displacement and food insecurity, these shocks can destroy harvests, disrupt livelihoods and water supplies, and force families to move.
"Communities facing repeated climate shocks are often the first to recognize the warning signs. But without the right support, they cannot always act in time," said Deputy Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ugochi Daniels. "Forecasts give us information we can act on. Flexible funding allows us to anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness and get support where it is needed most - helping people stay safe in their communities where possible, and helping those who need to move do so safely and with dignity."
Past cycles show what is at stake. According to the World Food Programme, the 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, affected more than 60 million people worldwide through drought, flooding and other climate-related shocks. More recently, the 2023-2024 El Niño brought severe impacts across multiple regions, including Southern Africa, where nearly 68 million people were affected by drought. Shocks on this scale strain public services, erode livelihoods and can leave families with little choice but to move.
Experiences from previous crises also show that acting on forecasts can reduce losses and humanitarian needs. IOM is part of inter-agency anticipatory action frameworks in 12 at-risk countries. In 2025, early support in five of them reached nearly 313,000 people in Haiti, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and the Philippines ahead of forecast shocks.
With this funding, IOM will combine displacement analysis with weather and climate forecasts to identify where risks are likely to intensify and support earlier action. IOM will also strengthen people-centred early warning systems that alert authorities and communities to impending hazards and support timely evacuation. In pastoral areas, these systems can also provide advance warning of unusual or unseasonal movements that could increase pressure on communities and resources.
Under the appeal, IOM will support governments to strengthen contingency planning through training and preparedness exercises and pre-position relief supplies near at-risk areas, enabling shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene, health and protection assistance to reach affected people quickly if access becomes constrained or conditions deteriorate.
IOM will work with national and local authorities, United Nations agencies, non-governmental and community organizations, Red Cross and Red Crescent actors, and humanitarian coordination structures in priority countries across Asia and the Pacific; Eastern, Horn and Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; and selected contexts in the Middle East and North Africa.
Flexible funding is important because the location and severity of El Niño impacts will continue to evolve over the coming months. Early contributions will allow IOM to direct resources rapidly to countries where forecasts and operational assessments indicate that action is most urgently needed.
"Acting early saves lives and reduces suffering," said Daniels. "Forecasts cannot remove every uncertainty, but they give us time to prepare - and to reduce risks before needs escalate, lives are disrupted and more families are forced to move."
The Global El Niño Appeal covers August 2026 to July 2027 and is available here .
