ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 1.0% m/m in July, following a downwardly revised 1.6% m/m increase in June. In trend terms, the series was down 0.3% m/m. Prior to the increase in June, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads also eased modestly in April and May.
"The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series edged lower from a revised 116.3 in June to 115.2 in July. The series remains within a tight 114-117 range and has largely been tracking sideways since mid-2024," said ANZ Economist Aaron Luk.
"The June labour force survey revealed some signs of labour market easing, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.3% in June, while employment saw a subdued increase of 2k. The results may also reflect some statistical noise, with the incoming rotation group in June having a relatively higher unemployment rate than the rest of the survey sample," he said.
"Still, elevated levels in our job ads series suggest a substantial loosening of the labour market is unlikely. And the Q2 NAB Business Survey indicates that around 80% of firms are still reporting labour constraints. As RBA Governor Bullock noted in her recent address to the Anika Foundation, 'leading indicators are not pointing to further significant increases in the unemployment rate in the near term', and we agree with this assessment."
"In July, the decline in Job Ads was concentrated in education, retail and installation & maintenance. Education has been the largest drag on growth over the past year," said Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering.
"Growth was strongest in software development roles, with the number of jobs rising to their highest level since September 2023," he said.
"The decline in July was driven by Victoria, where Job Ads fell to their lowest level since March 2021. Job Ads in New South Wales surged higher in July, but most other states were quite weak, particularly South Australia and Queensland."
