Largest ever annual drop in net migration

Net migration saw the largest drop on an annual basis in the year ended March 2021, Stats NZ today.

Net migration was provisionally estimated at 6,600 in the year ended March 2021 compared with 91,900 in the year ended March 2020, a drop of 85,400. Net migration in the year ended March 2020 was the highest ever.

COVID-19-related border and travel restrictions have resulted in record annual falls in both migrant arrivals and migrant departures.

The net gain of 6,600 in the year ended March 2021 was made up of 36,400 migrant arrivals and 29,800 migrant departures.

"On an annual basis, these are the lowest numbers for migrant arrivals since 1986, and for migrant departures since 1969," population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

"However, we still have a net migration gain as migrant arrivals exceed migrant departures."

Net gain of New Zealand citizens continues

Provisionally, a net gain of 15,500 New Zealand citizens was partly offset by a net loss of 8,900 non-New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021.

"Historically, New Zealand has had an annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens and an annual net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens, but COVID-19-related travel and border restrictions have reversed this pattern," Mr Islam said.

"On an annual basis, migration estimates indicate a provisional net gain of New Zealand citizens since December 2019".

The net gain in New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021 is mostly due to fewer New Zealand citizens departing overseas, relative to those arriving.

The provisionally estimated 7,800 migrant departures of New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021 was well below historical levels, which averaged 51,900 for March years 2002-2020.

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended March 2021

Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended March 2021. Overall, net migration is 6,600, made up of a net gain of 15,500 NZ citizens (based on 23,300 migrant arrivals, a 50 percent decrease on the year ended March 2020, and 7,800 migrant departures, a 78 percent decrease) and a net loss of 8,900 non-NZ citizens (based on 13,100 migrant arrivals, a 91 percent decrease on the year ended March 2020, and 22,000 migrant departures, a 62 percent decrease).

The net loss of non-New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021 was driven by the large decrease in migrant arrivals, relative to migrant departures.

In the last year there were a provisionally estimated 13,100 migrant arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. This is down from the peak of 138,500 in the year ended March 2020, and well below historical annual levels which averaged 86,300 for the March years 2002-2019.

Who is a migrant

'Migrant arrivals' are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

'Migrant departures' are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand. The classification of travellers as migrants is based on their time spent in and out of New Zealand, not what visa type or passport they cross the border on, and not on their responses on arrival cards. Given this, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, using the 12/16-month rule, to definitively classify a border crossing as a migrant movement. Border crossing data after March 2021 therefore informs the latest migration estimates.