The new year has brought severe weather to much of the country. Let's begin by looking at recent conditions.
January days and nights have been much warmer than usual across most of Australia, except for areas in the north where the monsoon has been active. Heatwaves affected much of the country during January. Many locations reached temperatures between 45 and 49 °C. New record highs for the month include Shark Bay in the West, with annual records set at Ceduna, Pooncarie, Renmark, Mildura, Walpeup and Hopetoun.
January rainfall has been above average for parts of northern and central Queensland, and along the central and south coasts of New South Wales. Elsewhere, rainfall was average to below average and much drier than usual in the south east. The lack of rain and high temperatures saw fires flared up in many locations across southern Australia, including catastrophic fire conditions across much of Victoria in early January.
In the north Tropical Cyclone Koji crossed the central Queensland coast on the 11th of January, causing major flooding in already saturated areas of eastern and central Queensland. On the 24th, Tropical Cyclone Luana crossed the coast near Derby in Western Australia, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. It was the second cyclone to impact the area this season, following Severe Tropical Cyclone Haley in late December.
Root zone soil moisture is currently above average in parts of northern Australia, and very much above average in areas of northern and central Queensland currently affected by flooding. Warm and dry conditions have led to decreased soil moisture in much of the south.
In January, streamflow was average to above average for most of northern Queensland, but for most other areas, streamflow was below average.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for February to April currently shows below average rainfall is likely for parts of northern and south eastern Australia, while some areas in the east are likely to see above average rainfall. Most of the country shows no strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions.
Looking at temperature, days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of the country. There's an increased chance of unusually warm days across much of eastern and western Australia and parts of the interior.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above average in the Australian region, although waters off the southern coasts are more likely to be closer to average. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, which can enhance the severity of cyclones, storms and rain systems.
La Niña continues for now in the tropical Pacific Ocean, forecasts show the tropical Pacific is likely to return to a neutral ENSO state in late summer.
In summary, our forecast for February to April shows:
- warmer than average days and nights with an increased risk of extreme heat.
- no strong signal for wetter or dry conditions for most areas.
- and the tropical cyclone season continues in the north.
Find the latest long range forecasts on the Bureau's website. Explore maps for the weeks and months ahead and select your location for more details.
Bye for now.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
