The proportion of people identifying with Māori ethnicity is projected to grow in all 16 regions between 2018 and 2043, Stats NZ said today.
In 2018, the Māori population was 17 percent of New Zealand's population, ranging from 54 percent of Gisborne's population down to nine percent in Tasman and Otago. That share is projected to increase to 21 percent nationally by 2043, ranging from 69 percent in Gisborne down to 12 percent in Tasman and Otago.
"The Māori population has relatively high proportions of tamariki and rangatahi, and a lower proportion of kaumātua," population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said.
"These differences in age structure, combined with higher birth rates, result in faster projected growth for the Māori population compared with the total population overall."
| Region | 2018 | 2043 |
| Northland region | 36 | 43 |
| Auckland region | 12 | 13 |
| Waikato region | 24 | 29 |
| Bay of Plenty region | 29 | 34 |
| Gisborne region | 54 | 69 |
| Hawke's Bay region | 28 | 35 |
| Taranaki region | 20 | 30 |
| Manawatū-Whanganui region | 23 | 32 |
| Wellington region | 14 | 19 |
| Tasman region | 9 | 12 |
| Nelson region | 11 | 15 |
| Marlborough region | 14 | 20 |
| West Coast region | 12 | 18 |
| Canterbury region | 10 | 13 |
| Otago region | 9 | 12 |
| Southland region | 15 | 24 |
Natural increase (more births than deaths) is projected to continue to be the main driver of Māori population growth in all regions. Net migration (arrivals less departures) and changes in ethnic identification are projected to make smaller contributions.
These insights are from the Subnational ethnic population projections: 2018(base)-2043, which were released today. These projections give an indication of the future size and age-sex composition of four broad and overlapping ethnic groups - Māori, Pacific, Asian, and 'European or Other' - living in all areas of New Zealand. The projections help ethnic and local communities understand and plan for future population changes.
The subnational ethnic population projections complement the New Zealand projections of ethnic populations (National ethnic population projections: 2018(base)-2043) released on 28 May 2021.
For more information on the subnational ethnic population projections see Subnational ethnic population projections: 2018(base)-2043.
