New SA Covid-Ready modelling (PDF 975KB) has been provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide's School of Mathematical Sciences. The model was updated on 7 February 2023, being calibrated against our reported case numbers and hospital admission data.
As previously, this South Australian modelling takes into account the population age distribution, vaccination status (current and future prediction), the number of people who have already had a COVID-19 infection, characteristics of COVID-19 variants and how many of the COVID-19 cases we think we are detecting through testing.
The latest modelling accounts for the variants that are currently present in South Australia, no change to the number of people with COVID getting tested, and no change to vaccine uptake (it does not account for the recently announced changes to the 5th dose).
The estimated peak date of cases from the model is around 19 March, and the estimated peak date of hospitalisations is around 7 April.
The peaks in cases, infections, and hospitalisations are all estimated to be smaller in peak size in comparison to the previous two waves.
This ongoing modelling enables all South Australian's take personal steps to protect their health and the health of their loved ones by staying at home when sick, getting vaccinated and getting tested with symptoms, and enables SA Health to prepare for managing COVID-19 in our health services.
