New Zealand's total fertility rate in 2020 was down to 1.61 births per woman, its lowest recorded level, and well below the population replacement rate of 2.1, Stats NZ said today.
This means that based on birth rates in 2020, New Zealand women would average 1.61 births over their lifetime.
"Fertility rates in New Zealand were relatively stable between 1980 and 2012, but have generally decreased since then," population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said.
"Since 2013, the number of women of reproductive age has increased by 11 percent and the number of births has decreased by 2 percent."
In 2020, there were 57,753 live births registered in New Zealand, down 2,064 (3 percent) from the previous year. There was also a 2 percent increase in the number of women aged 15-49 years (those of general reproductive age). The combination of fewer births and an increase in women aged 15-49 in 2020 explains why the fertility rate was at a record low .
Most babies registered in 2020 were conceived before New Zealand moved to COVID-19 alert level 4 on 25 March 2020. Data to be released in May 2021 will include births that were conceived during the lockdown restrictions.
International comparisons
New Zealand's total fertility rate has shown similar trends to other countries, including Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States.
Although fertility rates are decreasing, we still have a population that is increasing in size through migration and natural increase (more births than deaths). However, a total fertility rate below replacement level over a longer period of time can lead to population decrease. For example, Japan's total fertility rate has been consistently below 2.1 since 1974, and with limited migration it has had a decreasing population since 2011. See World Bank Group for more information on Japan's population.
| December year | New Zealand | Australia | Canada | United Kingdom | United States | Japan |
| 1960 | 4.03 | 3.45 | 3.81 | 2.69 | 3.65 | 2 |
| 1961 | 3.98 | 3.54 | 3.75 | 2.78 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 1962 | 4.11 | 3.44 | 3.68 | 2.86 | 3.46 | 2.01 |
| 1963 | 3.99 | 3.33 | 3.61 | 2.88 | 3.32 | 2.02 |
| 1964 | 3.73 | 3.15 | 3.46 | 2.93 | 3.19 | 2.05 |
| 1965 | 3.54 | 2.98 | 3.12 | 2.86 | 2.91 | 2.14 |
| 1966 | 3.41 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 2.78 | 2.72 | 1.58 |
| 1967 | 3.35 | 2.85 | 2.53 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 2.02 |
| 1968 | 3.33 | 2.89 | 2.39 | 2.6 | 2.46 | 2.13 |
| 1969 | 3.27 | 2.89 | 2.33 | 2.51 | 2.46 | 2.13 |
| 1970 | 3.16 | 2.86 | 2.26 | 2.44 | 2.48 | 2.14 |
| 1971 | 3.19 | 2.96 | 2.14 | 2.41 | 2.27 | 2.16 |
| 1972 | 3 | 2.74 | 1.98 | 2.2 | 2.01 | 2.14 |
| 1973 | 2.7 | 2.49 | 1.89 | 2.04 | 1.88 | 2.14 |
| 1974 | 2.57 | 2.4 | 1.84 | 1.92 | 1.84 | 2.05 |
| 1975 | 2.33 | 2.15 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.91 |
| 1976 | 2.27 | 2.06 | 1.8 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.85 |
| 1977 | 2.23 | 2.01 | 1.78 | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.8 |
| 1978 | 2.07 | 1.95 | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.79 |
| 1979 | 2.12 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.77 |
| 1980 | 2.03 | 1.89 | 1.74 | 1.9 | 1.84 | 1.75 |
| 1981 | 2.01 | 1.94 | 1.7 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 1.74 |
| 1982 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.69 | 1.78 | 1.83 | 1.77 |
| 1983 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.68 | 1.77 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1984 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.65 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| 1985 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.67 | 1.79 | 1.84 | 1.76 |
| 1986 | 1.96 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 1.78 | 1.84 | 1.72 |
| 1987 | 2.03 | 1.85 | 1.68 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.69 |
| 1988 | 2.1 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 1.82 | 1.93 | 1.66 |
| 1989 | 2.12 | 1.84 | 1.77 | 1.79 | 2.01 | 1.57 |
| 1990 | 2.18 | 1.9 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 2.08 | 1.54 |
| 1991 | 2.16 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.82 | 2.06 | 1.53 |
| 1992 | 2.12 | 1.89 | 1.71 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 1.5 |
| 1993 | 2.05 | 1.86 | 1.7 | 1.76 | 2.02 | 1.46 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1.84 | 1.67 | 1.74 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 1995 | 1.99 | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.42 |
| 1996 | 1.96 | 1.8 | 1.59 | 1.73 | 1.98 | 1.43 |
| 1997 | 1.96 | 1.78 | 1.55 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.39 |
| 1998 | 1.89 | 1.76 | 1.53 | 1.71 | 2 | 1.38 |
| 1999 | 1.97 | 1.76 | 1.51 | 1.68 | 2.01 | 1.34 |
| 2000 | 1.98 | 1.76 | 1.49 | 1.64 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 2001 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 1.51 | 1.63 | 2.03 | 1.33 |
| 2002 | 1.89 | 1.76 | 1.5 | 1.63 | 2.02 | 1.32 |
| 2003 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.53 | 1.7 | 2.05 | 1.29 |
| 2004 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 1.53 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.29 |
| 2005 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.54 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.26 |
| 2006 | 2.01 | 1.91 | 1.59 | 1.82 | 2.11 | 1.32 |
| 2007 | 2.18 | 1.96 | 1.66 | 1.86 | 2.12 | 1.34 |
| 2008 | 2.19 | 1.98 | 1.68 | 1.91 | 2.07 | 1.37 |
| 2009 | 2.13 | 1.97 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 2 | 1.37 |
| 2010 | 2.17 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 1.92 | 1.93 | 1.39 |
| 2011 | 2.09 | 1.93 | 1.61 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.39 |
| 2012 | 2.1 | 1.92 | 1.61 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.41 |
| 2013 | 2.01 | 1.86 | 1.59 | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| 2014 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.58 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.42 |
| 2015 | 1.99 | 1.81 | 1.56 | 1.8 | 1.84 | 1.45 |
| 2016 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 1.54 | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.44 |
| 2017 | 1.81 | 1.74 | 1.5 | 1.74 | 1.77 | 1.43 |
| 2018 | 1.71 | 1.74 | 1.5 | 1.68 | 1.73 | 1.42 |
| 2019 | 1.72 | |||||
| 2020 | 1.61 |
| Region | Births per woman |
| Gisborne | 2.33 |
| Northland | 2.28 |
| Hawke's Bay | 2.12 |
| Taranaki | 2.11 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.1 |
| Waikato | 1.99 |
| West Coast | 1.99 |
| Manawatu-Whanganui | 1.98 |
| Marlborough | 1.96 |
| Southland | 1.88 |
| Tasman | 1.81 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 1.75 |
| Nelson | 1.71 |
| Canterbury | 1.69 |
| Auckland | 1.65 |
| Wellington | 1.54 |
| Otago | 1.38 |
Death numbers drop in 2020
In 2020 there were 32,613 deaths registered in New Zealand, down 1,647 (5 percent) from 2019.
Annual deaths in general are gradually increasing over time, despite increasing life expectancy, because of general population growth and more people in older age groups (where most deaths occur).
Drops in the number of deaths happen from time to time, despite a growing and aging population. However, the latest fall coincided with lockdown restrictions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Alert level restrictions, including stay-at-home instructions, limits on travel, and increased hygiene awareness, may have played a part in the reduced number of deaths.
The cooler months (between April and September) usually have more deaths than in the warmer months. However, in 2020, the number of deaths registered in the cooler months (16,449) were similar to the warmer months (16,164). Between the start of April and the end of September 2020 there were 1,848 fewer deaths than this period in 2019.
Provisional weekly death numbers are available on the COVID-19 data portal under the Health tab.
