NZ Economy Hit by Middle East Conflict Impacts

This page provides updates on how economic impacts from the Middle East conflict are reflected in Stats NZ releases. Changes in fuel prices and supply chains are likely to have a broad range of impacts on New Zealand's households and businesses, which will flow through to related releases.

Updates

16 April 2026

Overview of releases expected to reflect impacts from the Middle East conflict

Upcoming economic releases that are likely to reflect impacts of events in the Middle East are listed below. All Stats NZ releases are listed in the Release calendar.

April 2026 releases

• Electronic card transactions: March 2026 - 17 April 2026
• Selected price indexes: March 2026 - 17 April 2026
• Overseas merchandise trade: March 2026 - 20 April 2026
• Consumers price index: March 2026 quarter - 21 April 2026
• NZ activity index (NZAC) - includes March 2026 data - 28 April 2026
• Household living-costs price indexes: March 2026 quarter - 29 April 2026

May 2026 releases

• International travel: March 2026 - 14 May 2026
• Selected price indexes: April 2026 - 15 May 2026
• Electronic card transactions: April 2026 - 19 May 2026
• Business price indexes: March 2026 quarter - 19 May 2026
• Overseas merchandise trade: April 2026 - 21 May 2026
• Retail trade survey: March 2026 quarter - 22 May 2026

June 2026 releases

• International trade: March 2026 quarter - 3 June 2026
• Business financial data: March 2026 quarter - 9 June 2026
• International travel: April 2026 - 12 June 2026
• Electronic card transactions: May 2026 - 15 June 2026
• Selected price indexes: May 2026 - 16 June 2026
• Balance of payments and international investment position: March 2026 quarter - 17 June 2026
• Gross domestic product: March 2026 quarter - 18 June 2026
• Overseas merchandise trade: May 2026 - 19 June 2026

July 2026 releases

• International travel: May 2026 - 14 July 2026
• Electronic card transactions: June 2026 - 15 July 2026
• Selected price indexes: June 2026 - 17 July 2026
• Overseas merchandise trade: June 2026 - 20 July 2026
• Consumers price index: June 2026 quarter - 21 July 2026
• Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): March 2026 quarter - 22 July 2026
• Household living-costs price indexes: June 2026 quarter - 28 July 2026

Updates

16 April 2026 update:

Upcoming publications and datasets for the March 2026 month and quarter

Recent conflict in the Middle East began on 28 February 2026, so the first impacts on New Zealand's economy will be reflected in data releases for the March 2026 month and quarter.

Electronic card transactions data

Stats NZ publishes monthly electronic card transactions (ECT) data, which includes spending at fuel retailers. The release for the March 2026 month and quarter will be published on 17 April 2026.

ECT series cover debit, credit, and charge card transactions with New Zealand-based merchants. Cash sales, fuel cards that are settled by invoice, and mobile apps that operate outside of the merchant system are excluded.

Stats NZ receives aggregated spending data by store type (for example, fuel retailing) a few days after the reference month. ECT data doesn't contain quantities (for example, litres of fuel) and is not adjusted for inflation. The aggregated nature of the data does not allow it to be broken down by fuel type (for example, petrol, diesel). Non-fuel-related transactions in the fuel retailing industry, such as for snacks and drinks, can also be captured. Some limitations in coverage mean that the data does not capture all card transactions across the market.

The relevant Infoshare dataset (select 'Economic indicators', then 'Electronic card transactions (ANZSIC06) - ECT') is:

• Values - Electronic card transactions A/S/T by industry group (Monthly)
  • Industry group: Fuel.

Electronic card transactions - DataInfo+ has more information about coverage and methodology.

Consumers price statistics

The monthly release of selected price indexes (SPI) includes data for petrol, diesel, and domestic and international air transport. The release for the March 2026 month will be published on 17 April 2026.

The consumers price index (CPI) for the March 2026 quarter will be published on 21 April 2026.

The SPI is a subset of the CPI. While the quarterly CPI remains the official measure of inflation, the SPI provides more timely information on price movements and supports improved CPI forecasting. The SPI draws on prices already available monthly, covering 46.5 percent of the CPI 'basket' of goods and services by weight.

Selected price indexes - DataInfo+ has more information on SPI coverage.

We have made the full CPI basket item list and the associated item-level weights available. This includes the three different types of fuel (regular (91), premium (95/98), and diesel).

Price index methods - updates for the March 2026 quarter has more information on the item-level weights and regional fuel expenditure weights.

Petrol and diesel combined account for 3.9 percent of the total CPI basket.

Fuel prices are currently collected in two ways:

• Administrative (admin) data - we receive monthly total sales (incorporating discounts) and volumes data directly from some fuel retailers in New Zealand. This excludes business-to-business sales via trade cards. We calculate unit prices from the sales and volumes data.
• Field collection - for the remaining companies, Stats NZ field staff collect advertised prices weekly (on Thursdays or Fridays) from service stations across the country. A limitation with weekly price collection in times of volatility is that we may miss later price movements in a month. We are in the process of moving entirely to using admin data.

The split between admin data and field collection is about 50:50. We average data from weekly field observations and combine these averages with administrative data to produce the monthly fuel price index published in the SPI. To calculate the quarterly fuel price index published in the CPI, we apply 'day weighting' to monthly prices. This process gives more importance to months with more days.

We also publish quarterly weighted average prices (per 10 litres) for 91 octane petrol, combined 95 and 98 octane petrol, and diesel.

The relevant Infoshare dataset (select 'Economic indicators', then 'Consumers price index - CPI') is:

• CPI Selected quarterly weighted average price for New Zealand (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec).

Weighted average prices are calculated by applying index movements to weighted average prices for the June 2006 quarter. These are not statistically accurate measures of average transaction price levels, but they do provide a reliable indicator of percentage changes in prices.

Weekly fuel data for a small number of petrol stations was unable to be collected during some weeks in March due to fuel unavailability. As a result, unavailable fuel prices were imputed using the average price observed in respective regions.

Fuel is also a significant cost input for the aviation industry, and we expect to see impacts on both domestic and international airfares. It should be noted that our methods are designed to reflect typical booking behaviour, so we price airfares up to 12 months in advance. As a result, fuel-related price impacts may take time to be fully reflected in our statistics.

Business price statistics

The suite of business price indexes includes producer price indexes (PPIs) and the farm expenses price index (FEPI). Results for the March 2026 quarter will be published on 21 May 2026.

FEPI includes index numbers for fuel and fertiliser. PPIs for inputs and outputs are generally published by industry. Index numbers for selected commodities include petrol, diesel, electricity and gas for commercial customers, and road freight transport services.

Some fuel prices are collected in the middle of each month. For other commodities, such as fertiliser, prices are collected in the middle of each quarter. We are considering what additional steps we need to take to have representative price information for the quarter.

International trade statistics

Overseas merchandise trade (OMT) data for the March 2026 month will be released on 20 April 2026.

The International trade release including goods and services for the March 2026 quarter is scheduled for 3 June 2026. This release also includes overseas trade indexes, showing price and volume index series at detailed commodity levels.

A limitation with OMT is that it covers goods imports and exports when they cross the border. Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE) is leading the fuel response and is in contact with fuel suppliers regularly. They have access to information about oil imports en route to New Zealand, which is timelier than when it will show up in New Zealand Customs Service data (as it crosses the border) and subsequently in OMT. Fuel companies lodge their fuel imports once a month, and usually towards the end of the month.

OMT fuel import data is available from Infoshare - Trade variables.

OMT uses the Harmonised System (HS) classification. The HS codes below are relevant to petroleum and petroleum products. The search function for HS codes in Infoshare can be used to find data for other commodities, such as fertiliser.

International travel

Data on international travel for the March 2026 month will be released on 14 May 2026.

International travel - DataInfo+ has more information about this data.

New Zealand activity index (NZAC)

NZAC is a broad measure of economic activity. It summarises eight monthly indicators, including spending, unemployment, job vacancies, (light and heavy) traffic volumes, electricity generation, business outlook, and manufacturing activity. The next release, including data for March 2026, will be published on 28 April 2026.

New Zealand activity index has more information.

Access high-frequency data from other agencies

Frequent data updates on fuel and transport are available from other agencies:

• Fuel response monitoring dashboard (Ministry of Transport) - a summary of travel demand across New Zealand's transport network, and fuel supply and prices, updated daily.
• Weekly fuel price monitoring (MBIE) - national average prices and retail importer margins for regular petrol, premium petrol, and diesel. This data is updated weekly, using the previous week's data.

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