With nearly all votes counted in Saturday's Western Australian state byelection for Secret Harbour, the ABC's results give One Nation 39.1% of the primary vote (up a huge 30.6% since the March 2025 state election), Labor 24.4% (down 22.1%), the Liberals 17.3% (down 7.1%), the Greens 7.5% (down 1.3%), Legalise Cannabis 3.7% (down 2.1%), Animal Justice 1.8% (down 0.8%) and Australian Christians 1.7% (down 1.1%).
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A surprisingly weak flow of preferences to One Nation has restricted their winning margin after preferences to 57.0-43.0 against Labor. But it is still a thumping victory, compared with Labor's 61.5-38.5 win over the Liberals in 2025. Although the Liberals had more than double the Greens' vote, preferences favoured Labor by 50.8-49.2 over One Nation.
Liberal voters who don't put One Nation ahead of Labor, despite their party's recommendations, could cost One Nation seats at general elections they should win based on primary votes.
Labor's loss came despite a WA state DemosAU poll that still had them in a clear election-winning position, leading the Liberals by 54-46 after preferences. In 2025, Labor defeated the Liberals by 57.1-42.9 after preferences.
At byelections, the incumbent party loses its MP's personal vote, and there's probably an incentive for voters to kick the government, especially if the government has a large majority (Labor won 46 of the 59 WA lower house seats at the March 2025 election ).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Secret Harbour and its two predecessor seats of Peel and Warnbro have been safe for Labor against the Liberals. This result shows One Nation can win seats from Labor in areas where the Liberals were unlikely to win. Secret Harbour overlaps with the federal seat of Canning, held by Liberal Andrew Hastie whom One Nation has been targetting.
Secret Harbour has many more people who have vocational qualifications rather than a university education and it has low ethnic diversity. One Nation does well with these demographics.
This result shows that, federally or at state level, Labor has reason to fear One Nation winning traditional Labor working-class seats that would be unlikely to vote for the Coalition parties.
WA DemosAU state poll
A WA DemosAU state poll , conducted August 6-25 from a sample of 990, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (steady since the early June DemosAU poll ), the Liberals 21% (down two), the Nationals 4% (up one), One Nation 21% (up three), the Greens 12% (steady) and all Others 9% (down two).
Labor led the Liberals after preferences by 54-46, a one-point gain for Labor.
Labor Premier Roger Cook's net positive score was up one point to +7 (34% positive, 27% negative). Liberal leader Basil Zempilas' was steady at -3 (33% negative, 30% positive). One Nation WA leader Rod Caddies' was down three points to -15. Greens WA leader Brad Pettitt's was up three points to -15. Cook led Zempilas as preferred premier by 46-32 (44-33 previously).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
