Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting."
Around the end of each financial year, there is usually a higher level of reporting variability as employers finalise their employees' earnings and the payroll reporting financial year is reset. Until business reporting is complete, the interpretation of change in payroll jobs across this period can be more challenging than usual.
"Around June and July, estimates of payroll jobs can see slightly higher levels of revision than at other times of the year. This lasts until business reporting for the previous financial year is complete.
"Looking at how the labour market has fared over the most recent year of data, up to mid-July 2023, payroll jobs had grown by 3.7 per cent. This was slightly less than the annual growth we published this time last year, in the 12 months to mid-July 2022, of 4.5 per cent.
"This suggests that the labour market may be starting to slow, compared to the relatively stronger growth we saw during 2022," Mr Jarvis said.
| 2020 (pts) | 2021 (pts) | 2022 (pts) | 2023 (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 92.7 | 96.1 | 99.7 | 104.7 |
| Week 1 | 95.2 | 97.4 | 100.3 | 105.0 |
| Week 2 | 96.7 | 99.5 | 102.5 | 107.4 |
| Week 3 | 97.5 | 100.5 | 103.9 | 108.7 |
| Week 4 | 98.1 | 101.1 | 104.7 | 109.5 |
| Week 5 | 98.7 | 101.6 | 105.2 | 110.3 |
| Week 6 | 99.2 | 102.3 | 105.8 | 110.8 |
| Week 7 | 99.5 | 102.6 | 105.6 | 111.4 |
| Week 8 | 99.5 | 103.1 | 105.5 | 111.9 |
| Week 9 | 99.9 | 103.3 | 105.8 | 112.2 |
| Week 10 | 100.0 | 103.7 | 106.8 | 112.4 |
| Week 11 | 99.1 | 103.8 | 107.2 | 112.5 |
| Week 12 | 95.6 | 103.7 | 107.2 | 112.7 |
| Week 13 | 93.1 | 102.8 | 107.0 | 112.4 |
| Week 14 | 91.7 | 102.5 | 107.2 | 111.5 |
| Week 15 | 91.7 | 102.7 | 106.5 | 111.3 |
| Week 16 | 92.3 | 103.0 | 106.2 | 112.5 |
| Week 17 | 92.8 | 103.3 | 106.7 | 113.2 |
| Week 18 | 93.5 | 103.7 | 107.3 | 113.9 |
| Week 19 | 94.2 | 104.0 | 107.6 | 114.3 |
| Week 20 | 94.5 | 104.2 | 107.8 | 114.3 |
| Week 21 | 94.9 | 103.9 | 108.0 | 114.3 |
| Week 22 | 95.7 | 103.5 | 107.9 | 114.3 |
| Week 23 | 96.2 | 103.7 | 108.3 | 114.5 |
| Week 24 | 96.3 | 103.8 | 108.8 | 114.6 |
| Week 25 | 96.3 | 103.5 | 108.9 | 114.7 |
| Week 26 | 97.5 | 103.6 | 109.1 | 114.7 |
| Week 27 | 98.6 | 104.4 | 110.3 | 114.7 |
| Week 28 | 98.7 | 104.1 | 110.3 | 114.4 |
| Week 29 | 98.9 | 102.9 | 110.3 | |
| Week 30 | 99.1 | 103.1 | 110.8 | |
| Week 31 | 99.2 | 102.9 | 110.8 | |
| Week 32 | 99.1 | 102.8 | 111.1 | |
| Week 33 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 111.3 | |
| Week 34 | 99.3 | 101.6 | 111.5 | |
| Week 35 | 99.6 | 101.7 | 111.4 | |
| Week 36 | 100.0 | 102.3 | 111.7 | |
| Week 37 | 100.2 | 102.7 | 111.7 | |
| Week 38 | 100.0 | 102.5 | 111.3 | |
| Week 39 | 99.3 | 102.2 | 110.9 | |
| Week 40 | 99.5 | 102.6 | 111.1 | |
| Week 41 | 100.4 | 104.3 | 111.7 | |
| Week 42 | 100.7 | 105.5 | 112.0 | |
| Week 43 | 100.9 | 106.4 | 112.1 | |
| Week 44 | 101.3 | 106.9 | 112.3 | |
| Week 45 | 102.1 | 107.4 | 112.7 | |
| Week 46 | 102.4 | 107.9 | 113.0 | |
| Week 47 | 102.8 | 108.2 | 113.3 | |
| Week 48 | 103.3 | 108.7 | 113.6 | |
| Week 49 | 103.4 | 108.5 | 113.3 | |
| Week 50 | 102.6 | 107.7 | 112.7 | |
| Week 51 | 98.8 | 104.0 | 109.4 |
Indexed to the week ending 14 March 2020 (week 10 in 2020). Week 0 represents the weeks ending 4 January 2020, 2 January 2021, 1 January 2022 and 31 December 2022. Week 28 represents the weeks ending 18 July 2020, 17 July 2021, 16 July 2022 and 15 July 2023.
Payroll jobs fall in 5 of 8 states and territories
In the month to mid-July 2023, payroll jobs fell in 5 of 8 states and territories. The falls ranged from 0.6 per cent in Tasmania to 0.1 per cent in the Northern Territory. The Australian Capital Territory saw the largest rise over the month, of 0.5 per cent.
These variations between the state and territories can be partly explained by the different timing of their Winter term breaks and are particularly evident in the Education and training industry.
Comparisons of annual change at mid-July are useful given that the timing of the 2023 Winter term break was similar to 2022 in all state and territories.
Annual growth in payroll jobs ranged from 6.3 per cent in the Northern Territory to 3.2 per cent in New South Wales.
| Annual change to 15 July 2023 (%) | |
|---|---|
| Northern Territory | 6.3 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 4.8 |
| Western Australia | 4.6 |
| South Australia | 4.1 |
| Victoria | 3.9 |
| Queensland | 3.6 |
| Tasmania | 3.4 |
| New South Wales | 3.2 |
