Record Heat Set to Scorch Southeast Australia

BOM
A significant heatwave continues across south-eastern Australia, and this is creating challenging fire weather conditions in some areas.

First, let's have a look at what we saw on Saturday. Temperatures rose above 40 °C for large parts of south-east Australia. The hottest part of the country was Tarcoola, in South Australia, peaking at 48.2 °C. But quite a few other centres around central and northern parts of South Australia peaked above 45 °C, into the mid forties, also for northern Victoria, north-western New South Wales and out into outback Queensland.

But on Saturday afternoon, a bushfire in the Otway Ranges flared in Victoria that produced significant smoke, which then drifted across Geelong and Melbourne with a south-westerly wind change into Sunday morning. And so we are still seeing quite a bit of smoke around Melbourne, with reduced visibility. This is expected to linger for much of the day on Sunday.

But for the rest of the area on Sunday we do see high temperatures. These areas show where we are expecting maximum temperatures above 40 °C, we are going to see straight away back up into the mid forties for western New South Wales and up into the interior. Quite notably, though, we are seeing a bit of a reduction in temperatures along the south coast. That's where these cooler southerly winds are pushing through, and this is reflected in today's maximum temperature forecast.

We do see a much cooler day. Melbourne, 24 °C. Still quite warm in Adelaide, 37 °C. But as soon as we head north, temperatures rise very quickly back up into the low to mid forties. Also very hot along the east coast, 35 °C in Brisbane. Warm in Sydney, getting up into the low forties for western Sydney, and a hot day in Canberra with 38 °C.

For today's fire danger ratings, we are still seeing elevated fire dangers, high for many districts, reaching extreme for north-east Victoria and also through the ACT.

Now, as we head into Monday, the public holiday, we do see those northerly winds returning to South Australia, so temperatures climbing back up into the mid to high forties. Adelaide is forecast to reach 45 °C, which would make it its hottest Australia Day on record. Also warming up again through Melbourne, and Brisbane will peak at 37 °C on Monday.

And looking at those fire danger ratings for Monday, we do see high fire danger ratings yet again, reaching extreme for the Central Ranges in New South Wales.

Now on Tuesday, we will see a more significant cool change coming through from the west. And so temperatures will really drop with that change coming through. But ahead of that change, still very, very hot. So we'll see temperatures again climbing up into the low to mid, even high forties. Adelaide, 41 °C, before that afternoon cool change comes through. And 43 °C in Melbourne, with a cool change moving through during the evening period.

But up into northern Victoria, as temperatures rise up into the high forties, and the mid, high forties all the way into northern and central parts of the country. But one area of note on Tuesday will be the Mallee in Victoria, particularly the town of Ouyen, which is currently forecast to hit 49 °C. This could challenge or even exceed the current Victorian heat record, set at Hopetoun back in 2009 of 48.8 °C. So we'll be keeping a very close eye on numbers coming out of north-western Victoria on Tuesday.

So with temperatures really spiking on Tuesday, so too do the fire danger ratings, reaching extreme across the southern coastline, really focusing again across western parts of Victoria and southern parts of South Australia with those strong northerly winds. And that cooler south-westerly change pushing through. And these fire danger ratings are subject to change for Tuesday. So do make sure you have the latest information as we head into the next few days.

So now looking further ahead, as we head into Wednesday, we do see that cool change really making a bit of a difference along the south coast, but not making it too far inland, still a very hot day, another day in the low to mid and high forties across central parts of the country.

On Thursday, we see temperatures getting up towards 50 °C for parts of South Australia. Also very hot across outback Queensland, remaining very hot all the way down into southern parts of New South Wales, including the Riverina. We could see some records being broken over these next few days.

And on Friday, again not much change. Temperatures really climbing up into the mid to high forties. And this heat really isn't going anywhere. And that's because we're not seeing any cold fronts pushing through to the south. So the heat is basically just re-circulating around central parts of the country.

So this is all reflected in our heatwave warning product. We can see for the next few days, severe heatwave conditions continuing across much of the south-east, a little bit of a reprieve across the south coast as we head into the middle of the week. But as you saw, with the temperatures not really dropping across inland parts, severe to locally extreme heatwave conditions do continue all the way until at least next weekend.

And so with very high temperatures to come and elevated fire dangers, it is important that you have the latest information as we head into the next few days, as well as the warnings, you can get these on our website and our app.

/Bureau of Meteorology Public Release. This material from the originating organization/author(s) might be of the point-in-time nature, and edited for clarity, style and length. Mirage.News does not take institutional positions or sides, and all views, positions, and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s).View in full here.