Africa confronts escalating internal migration and displacement crises fueled by intensifying climate hazards—particularly prolonged droughts—and persistent armed conflicts, which compound vulnerabilities across the continent. Previous research clearly links these stressors to heightened population movements, but limited empirical work examines climate adaptation's role, especially agriculture's influence, in moderating these effects at grid and country levels.
On this premise, a study led by Professor Hyun Kim, Associate Professor in the School of Public Administration at Chungnam National University, shows that while drought and armed conflict are strongly associated with increased migration, higher levels of adaptive capacity substantially reduce migration when these stressors are present. The article, which was made available online on November 25, 2025, in the journal Sustainable Development , analyzed country and grid-level data from African nations over a 20-year period (1995–2015).
Rather than serving as a standalone solution, climate adaptation acts as a moderating force. Countries with stronger adaptive capacity experience lower migration levels during drought or armed conflict than less adaptive countries. This capacity is measured through key indicators, including agricultural output, access to water, health systems, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.
"Agricultural productivity plays a particularly important role," said Dr. Hyun Kim. "Higher crop yields are consistently associated with lower migration, highlighting how food security and livelihoods help stabilize communities during climate and conflict-related shocks."
The researchers examined migration data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, armed conflict records from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project, drought data from the EM-DAT disaster database, and climate adaptation indicators from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. Migration was quantified by annual population movements originating within the countries, including internally displaced persons and asylum seekers.
The study finds that armed conflict and drought independently increase migration risk. However, their combined effects are significantly weakened in countries with stronger adaptive capacity. This moderating effect is most pronounced during crisis conditions, suggesting that climate adaptation policies are especially critical when communities face overlapping environmental and security threats.
"Climate adaptation is often framed as a long-term environmental strategy," Prof. Kim said. "Our findings show it also has immediate social benefits by reducing migration pressures stemming from both climate hazards and armed conflict."
Beyond migration outcomes, the results align closely with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10), Climate Action (SDG 13), and Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG 16). Strengthening adaptive capacity, particularly within the agricultural sector, may help prevent humanitarian crises by addressing climate vulnerability before displacement escalates.
While the study focuses on Africa, the authors note that the findings hold broader implications for global debates on climate finance, climate justice, and migration governance. As climate risks intensify worldwide, the research underscores the importance of prioritizing adaptation as part of integrated strategies to reduce displacement and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions.
