A new study proposes a rigorous framework to guide the temporary closure of petrol stations in the face of heightened safety or security risks.
The research - published in the European Journal of Operational Research - focuses on the vulnerabilities of petrol stations and the wide-ranging consequences of potential incidents, from environmental damage and economic loss, to social disruption and loss of life.
Led by Professor Dylan Jones from the University of Portsmouth's Faculty of Technology and Dr Oleksii Ivanov of Odesa Polytechnic National University (OPNU), the project developed advanced decision-support algorithms to assess when petrol station closures should be enacted. The model weighs the severity of potential incidents alongside their wider sustainability impacts, using a sophisticated scoring and prioritisation system.
The project, rooted in the discipline of multiple criteria decision-making, proposes a vulnerability index that prioritises human life above all other factors. It also introduces a goal programming approach to recommend which stations, if any, should close temporarily - striking a balance between minimising public disruption and ensuring safety.
In an age where infrastructure has become a target as much as a utility, we need better tools to guide the difficult decisions about what stays open and what closes during a crisis.
Professor Dylan Jones, University of Portsmouth's Faculty of Technology
Portsmouth, a densely populated island city on England's south coast, was chosen as the case study site due to its constrained geography and infrastructure density. While there is no immediate risk to the city, the researchers stress that the methodology is designed for use in regions facing acute threats - whether due to military conflict, terrorism, or extreme weather events.
Dr Ivanov's contributions to the project - and his wider body of research - were recently recognised with a prestigious academic award from the Ukrainian Parliament, highlighting the international significance of the work.
"In an age where infrastructure has become a target as much as a utility, we need better tools to guide the difficult decisions about what stays open and what closes during a crisis," said Professor Jones. "This study is about equipping authorities with a way to make those calls in a transparent, evidence-based way."
The need for such approaches has been highlighted by recent events, including the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea, the vulnerability of nuclear sites in war zones, and the severing of undersea internet cables. In this context, infrastructure planning is increasingly seen not just as a technical issue, but a matter of national security.
The authors also suggest that their methodology could be adapted for other forms of critical infrastructure, such as airports, bridges, fuel depots and even electric vehicle charging networks - particularly as energy systems undergo major transformation.
While their current model is designed for emergency closures, future applications could include urban planning decisions or long-term infrastructure resilience assessments. The team hopes to further refine their approach by integrating risk management and safety science perspectives.
By connecting safety analytics with broader sustainability goals, such as those set out in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals on infrastructure and urban resilience, the study points toward a future where smarter infrastructure decisions can help mitigate both immediate threats and long-term vulnerabilities.
We are grateful for the opportunity, provided by the UK-Ukraine twinning grants scheme platform, to join leading researchers from the University of Portsmouth and be able to conduct research.
Dr Oleksii Ivanov , Odesa Polytechnic National University
The study also marks a milestone in the growing partnership between the University of Portsmouth and Odesa Polytechnic National University, as the two institutions celebrate the third anniversary of their collaboration under the UK-Ukraine Twinning Initiative.
Launched in 2022 in response to the ongoing conflict, the initiative supports Ukrainian universities by fostering international collaboration and strengthening academic resilience. Over the past three years, the University of Portsmouth and Odesa Polytechnic National University have worked together on a range of research and innovation projects aimed at supporting Ukraine's long-term welfare and economic recovery.
Dr Ivanov said: "We are grateful for the opportunity, provided by the UK-Ukraine twinning grants scheme platform, to join leading researchers from the University of Portsmouth and be able to conduct research. This project has grown from a Masters thesis into a thorough study, and we hope its results will be used to enhance the safety of city residents and ensure their sustainable development. Thank you to Professor Dylan Jones and other co-researchers for their cooperation, and I look forward to further collaboration. It was a fascinating experience."
These collaborative efforts were recently highlighted at an event celebrating the launch of the science, technology and innovation pillar of the UK-Ukraine 100-Year Partnership Agreement. The event was attended by Patrick Vallance, the UK's Minister of State for Science, Research and Innovation, and Oksen Lisovyi, Ukraine's Minister of Education and Science.
Dr Andrii Zharikov , Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Business and Law at University of Portsmouth and Academic Lead for the OPNU partnership, said: "This enduring collaboration exemplifies the strength of international academic partnerships in times of crisis, demonstrating our shared commitment to education, research, and mutual support. I'm proud to be part of an initiative that has delivered such impactful results."
