A new study led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions found that, overall, Baltimore's Safe Streets violence prevention program is associated with a 42% reduction in homicides involving youth age 15 to 24 and a 21% reduction in youth nonfatal shootings at the neighborhood level. The Center for Gun Violence Solutions is based at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
The study examined 11 Safe Streets sites across Baltimore over the 2007 to 2023 period. The researchers analyzed the first 39 months of each site. The results varied greatly by site and were not statistically significant, a common outcome when analyses involve small sample sizes. The researchers used data that covered the neighborhood area of each site, on average 0.57 miles.
The findings were published online May 12 in Injury Prevention.
Safe Streets is a community violence intervention program in Baltimore run by the Mayor's Office of Neighborhood and Community Engagement that uses trained messengers, often from the community, to mediate conflicts and prevent violence. The program was founded in 2007. Safe Streets Violence Interrupters use outreach to high-risk individuals, public education, and conflict mediation to de-escalate situations and keep communities safe.
"These results show that Safe Streets can have positive impacts on a leading cause of death among youth in Baltimore," says Carla Tilchin, assistant scientist at the Center for Gun Violence Solutions. "Safe Streets Violence Interrupters dedicate their lives to protecting public health and making their neighborhoods a safer place to live—it's important to know their work can save lives."
The findings were not consistent across sites. For example, five sites had estimated reductions in youth homicides ranging from 37% to 100%; but two sites had estimated increases in youth homicides of 46% and 89%. Overall, seven of the 11 sites experienced relatively large drops in youth nonfatal shootings, ranging from an estimated 27% reduction to an estimated 75% reduction. The authors say this variation could be caused by differences in neighborhood violence dynamics, engagement with community partners, police effectiveness, and implementation support.
The authors say the study advances the understanding of the potential impacts of community violence intervention programs by focusing on youth. It is thought to be the first study to examine community violence intervention programs to assess impacts on youth violence.
"Baltimore has taken major initiatives to invest in community-based violence interventions like Safe Streets," says Daniel Webster, Bloomberg Professor of American Health. "We hope Safe Streets will continue to enhance the program's reach and impact with youth at highest risk for gun violence."
To estimate the effects of the Safe Streets program, researchers used synthetic control methods. The researchers created a "synthetic" version of an intervention neighborhood using a weighted combination of control neighborhoods, optimized to most closely match youth violence trends prior to the implementation of Safe Streets. This allowed the researchers to model estimates of what would have happened to youth violence trends without Safe Streets.
The first Safe Street site, McElderry Park, opened in 2007 and remains open. The Mondawmin site operated between 2012 and 2016. The six newest sites opened in 2019 and 2020.
Homicide and non-fatal shooting data for this study came directly from the Baltimore Police Department and Open Baltimore, Baltimore City's publicly available data hub. "Impacts of Safe Streets, a Community Violence Intervention, on Youth Violence in Baltimore City" was authored by Carla Tilchin, Elizabeth Wager, Mitchell Doucette, Bijan Niknam, Shani Buggs, Michael Desjardins, and Daniel Webster.
This study was supported by the Johns Hopkins University Baltimore City Violence Prevention Fund.
