Between 5 April and 13 May 2022, the Australia Institute conducted four surveys, surveying a total of 4,009 adults living in Australia, online through Dynata’s panel, with nationally representative samples by gender, age group and state/territory.
Voting crosstabs show voting intentions for the House of Representatives. Those who were undecided were asked which way they were leaning; these leanings are included in voting intention crosstabs. The research is compliant with the Australian Polling Council Quality Mark standards.
There are four states likely to determine the balance of power in the next Senate:
· South Australia, where the Greens Barbara Pocock is strong chance and Nick Xenophon, Rex Patrick, 3rd Labor or even One Nation are in the running.
· Tasmania, where the final seat will likely be a race between Eric Abetz and the Jacqui Lambie Network.
· Western Australia and Victoria; where Labor is in the running for three seats.
Other points of interest:
· UAP or One Nation could be in the running for final seat in Victoria.
· Amanda Stoker seems likely to lose the 3rd spot for LNP in QLD.
· Greens chance at 3 new Senators as well as re-electing current 3 up for election giving them a potential record total of 12 in the new Senate.
· There is also a possibility that independent David Pocock will displace Zed Seselja in the ACT
“Tight contests in a number of places will determine who holds or shares balance of power but one thing is clear: neither Labor or the Coalition will go anywhere near having a majority in the new Senate,” said Ben Oquist, Executive Director, The Australia Institute
“Australians have two votes at the election and while it is their House of Representatives vote that determines who forms government, it is the Senate that determines what comes next in terms of legislation.”