Key voting blocs take familiar sides, but independents are split, according to Rutgers-Eagleton Poll
With less than three months until Election Day, congresswoman and Democratic nominee for governor Mikie Sherrill has a nine-point lead over former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters in New Jersey, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Forty-four percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were being held today, while 35% say they would vote for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else and 17% are unsure. When leaners are included-that is, respondents who first declined to choose but selected a candidate on a follow-up prompt - 47% back Sherrill, and 37% back Ciattarelli; 3% choose neither or someone else, and 12% remain undecided.
"As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor has tightened," said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. "Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds."
Koning added, "We are also at a turning point in New Jersey politics. Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today's political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race's history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day. The only thing for certain is that all eyes are on New Jersey this cycle."
Partisans take their respective sides, with 85% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherill and 81% of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli. Independents are nearly split down the middle, however - 33% for Sherrill versus 32% for Ciattarelli, with 29% unsure.
"Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey," said Koning. "Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November. Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout."
There are notable differences in other key demographics. While both men and women say they would vote for Sherill at about the same rate, women are 11 points less likely than men to say they would vote for Ciattarelli and are nine points more likely to be undecided.
White voters are divided between the two candidates (38% Sherrill to 44% Ciattarelli), but Sherrill leads by double digits among Black voters (69% to 4%), Hispanic voters (56% to 22%), and Asian voters (47% to 18%). About one in five Black voters and Hispanic voters and one-third of Asian voters remain uncertain, however.
Sherrill has a wide lead among those ages 18 to 34 (48% to 21%), but her lead narrows among those 35 to 49 years old (47% to 29%), as well as among those who are 65 years or older (48% to 38%). Her lead disappears among voters ages 50 to 64 (36% to 41%).
Socioeconomic factors impact vote choice. Sherill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (53% to 26%), while Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college or less (34% to 45%). Sherrill's lead over Ciattarelli is largest among voters in households making $150,000 or more annually (58% to 28%). Voters in less affluent households are more divided: 37% to 44% among those in households making between $100,000 and $150,000, 39% to 32% among those making $50,000 or less, and 43% to 35% among those making $50,000-100,000).
Geographically, Sherill's biggest margin over Ciattarelli comes from voters in urban areas (46% to 23%) and suburban areas (49% to 30%). Voters in other regions of the state are nearly split between the two candidates: 41% to 41% among exurbanites, 39% to 41% among those living in the southern part of the state or near Philadelphia, and 43% to 39% among shore dwellers.
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,650 likely voters contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from July 31 to August 11. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
