So we'll start off by taking a look at the water vapour imagery. Now this gives a really good indication as to how much moisture is available in the atmosphere to be rained out. And what we can see, these bright colours so the whites, the greens, the pinks, the purples. They're showing where the humidity is highest, and that's across northern parts of the country, where we're expecting the monsoon trough to develop in the next 24 hours. But also quite noticeable that this tongue of moisture extends down into the north-eastern parts of New South Wales.
Now, as we know, high humidity is needed for thunderstorm development, and that's what we've seen in the last 24 hours. These scattered showers and storms that have extended from the north into eastern parts, with peppered 24-hour totals in excess of 100 mm, including 214 mm at Byron Bay.
Now straight into the thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon and this evening, a really broad area. But in this video I'll be focusing on the north and the east. Now anywhere within this yellow area, severe thunderstorms might bring heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Whereas over the New South Wales border, there's also the potential for damaging wind gusts. So that's wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h, strong enough to bring down trees or power lines, and as well a risk of large hail. So that's hail with a diameter greater than 2 cm.
Now, as we do move into tomorrow, however, we've got these severe thunderstorm likely areas. So this is for Christmas Eve. Severe thunderstorms likely to bring heavy rainfall, but also the potential for locally intense rainfall that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. Now this includes across the Carpentaria, the Barkly and north-western districts of Queensland.
Now we do also, we have also issued a flood watch across eastern parts of the NT and western parts of Queensland, because we're starting to see multiple days in a row with heavy to locally intense rainfall, and grounds are getting wet and catchments sodden. So we're expecting to start to see a response in the river system. Now roads may be cut and communities isolated over the coming days, and that's what that flood watch is just flagging.
Now, shifting the focus down to the south-east, we've got the Wide Bay Burnett, the Capricornia and also the Central Highlands and Coalfields, where there's the potential again for heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding. Shifting into New South Wales, however, that trifecta risk again occurs with the damaging wind gusts and the large hail, as well as the heavy rainfall.
For Christmas Day, a fairly similar area is expected with severe thunderstorms, however now expected to be possible about the south-east coast of Queensland and the far northern parts of the Northern Rivers district of New South Wales. Again, really high humidity being drawn over the country by that developing monsoon trough, with the heavy to locally intense rainfall possible.
Now the community impacts from all of this rain might include both flash and riverine flooding. There's the potential for hazardous driving conditions with water across roads as well. There's the potential for community isolation and damage to crops, gardens and plants.
So if you live across the northern parts of the country or the east, now is a really good time to stay up to date with our latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau website, app and social media. Otherwise, listen to all of the advice from your local emergency services. Bye for now.
Video current: 3:00 pm AEDT Tuesday 23/12/25.