A groundbreaking study has provided new insights into the forces that cause tectonic movements in Europe's most seismically active regions. Researchers used advanced satellite data to track land movements in Greece, western Turkey and the southern Balkan countries. "This is crucial information for assessing the risk of major earthquakes."
Friction
Tectonic plates diverge, converge, or move past each other in opposing directions at speeds of 0.1 to 90 millimetres per year. At many plate boundaries, rocks on both sides of the fault remain stuck for decades or centuries while the plates continue to move. This causes material stress to build up at the plate boundaries. If that stress becomes too great and the rocks break loose, the relative movement can be metres in a single moment: an earthquake. A team of geoscientists used an advanced mechanical model to estimate the forces behind these movements at the tectonic boundary between the African and Eurasian plates. The model includes important fault zones known for their earthquakes.
Using this model, for the first time scientists were able to determine the maximum relative velocity in the hypothetical case of no friction at the plate boundaries. They also determined the actual current velocity. The greater the difference between the maximum and current velocity of a plate, the more stress builds up and thus the greater the likelihood of a major earthquake. "We can now estimate how quickly the stress builds up," says Rob Govers, associate professor at Utrecht University and lead author of the study.
Smooth passage
The subduction zones to the south, west and east of the Aegean Sea – where the African plate slides to a depth of 1300 km beneath Europe – appear to play a crucial role. The stress builds up slowly along the plate boundaries, with the exception of the Kephalonia fault zone. As a result, most plate boundaries have almost the maximum possible speed, and the plates slide smoothly past or over each other. The speed along the notorious North Anatolian fault is also smooth, except near Istanbul, where an earthquake is expected.
"The movement predictions of our model correspond very well with satellite observations," says Govers. "This gives us confidence in our findings, which offer a new understanding of the seismic activity in the region." The model also predicts observations that were not part of the study, such as the fault movements during the earthquakes around Santorini in February 2025.
Predictions
The next step is to link these new insights to historical earthquake data. From this, you can estimate approximately at what stress points plates have broken loose. "If you link this to our model and when previous major earthquake occurred, you can theoretically predict when and where the next major earthquake is likely to occur in the coming decades." This information can be used to improve building guidelines and other protective measures.
