A comprehensive study conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center shows that over 75% of Arab Israelis support an Arab party joining the next governing coalition.
This marks a significant increase from 63% in May 2023, before the war.
The data also indicate that if the Joint List were re-established, voter turnout in Arab society would climb to 61.8%, and the party could secure 15.5 Knesset seats.
Main findings:
If elections were held today, expected voter turnout in Arab society would be 52.4%, similar to the turnout in the 25th Knesset elections (53.2%) held in November 2022. In this scenario, Hadash-Ta'al (5.3 seats) and Ra'am (3.9 seats) are expected to pass the electoral threshold, while Balad (at 2.6 seats) is not. However, if the Joint List were re-established, as in the past, as a union of the four Arab parties - Hadash, Ta'al, Ra'am, and Balad - expected voter turnout in Arab society would rise to 61.8%, and the Joint List could win 15.5 seats.
A large majority (77.4%) support the inclusion of an Arab party in the government to be formed after the next elections: 45.6% support joining any government that emerges, and 31.8% support joining a center-left government. These levels are similar to findings from previous surveys conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Program during the war.
An overwhelming majority of respondents (74%) indicated that the most pressing issue facing the Arab public today is the need to tackle violence and crime. Other key concerns include resolving the Palestinian question (7.6%) and regulating planning and construction in Arab towns (7%).
Regarding the personal identity of Arab citizens, two main components stand out: Arab identity (35.9%) and Israeli citizenship (31.7%). Additional elements include religious affiliation (17.3%) and Palestinian identity (14.7%).
A substantial majority of the Arab public (76.6%) report a weak sense of personal security. The main factor negatively affecting their mood is the high number of violent incidents in Arab communities (51.9%), followed by fear of a new war breaking out in the region (14.2%), the situation of Palestinians in Gaza (11.3%), and economic hardship (10%). At the same time, a large majority (73.4%) of respondents describe their economic situation is relatively good - the highest figure recorded in Konrad Adenauer Program surveys during the war.
A large majority of respondents (74.6%) said that relations between Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel have deteriorated over the past two years as a result of the war; 45.8% even stated that relations have deteriorated significantly. Additionally, 37.5% of respondents said their sense of belonging to the state has weakened over the past two years due to the war. However, 50.8% reported that the war did not affect their feelings toward the state one way or the other.
A majority of the Arab public (64.6% of respondents) believe in Arab-Jewish political cooperation, yet only 44.7% believe that the Jewish public actually supports such political cooperation.
About half of the Arab public (47.3%) believe that the realistic solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a two-state arrangement based on the 1967 borders. Only 14% view a single state - from the river to the sea - shared by Israelis and Palestinians as a realistic option, and 8.5% propose a regional solution with international mediation. In contrast, 21% of respondents believe that no political solution is currently on the horizon.
Dr. Arik Rudnitzky, Director of the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center: "The last two years have not been easy for Arab citizens, as the ongoing war in Gaza and the suffering of the Palestinian population have deeply troubled them. Yet the support for including an Arab party in the coalition, as well as the belief in Arab-Jewish political partnership, even in the shadow of a prolonged war, indicate that the Arab public is demonstrating noteworthy political maturity, upholding values of public order and democracy, and now seeking to contribute to the rehabilitation of Israeli society as a whole after the war. Despite the harshest and longest confrontation in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the political compass of Arab Israelis remains focused on the civic issues that concern them on a daily basis. The Palestinian issue is always present in the background, but for the overwhelming majority of Arab citizens, it does not dictate their political agenda."
