The candidates are neck-and-neck on economic issues, schools, and transportation, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll
Just weeks ahead of the Nov. 4 election, congresswoman and Democratic nominee for governor Mikie Sherrill has a five-point lead over former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters in New Jersey, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Fifty percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today, 45% say they would vote for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else, and 2% are unsure. The five-point lead is within the margin of error.
"As all eyes turn to New Jersey's governor's race as a test of the nation's political mood, the contest has narrowed in its final weeks," said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. "Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign's turnout operation. This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates."
Partisans are taking their respective sides, with 95% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherill and 94% of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli. Independents are more split, however - 49% for Sherrill versus 40% for Ciattarelli (within the margin of error), with 6% saying neither or someone else and 5% unsure.
There are notable differences in other key demographics, including a sharp gender gap, with women 18 points more likely than men to say they would vote for Sherrill and 16 points less likely to vote for Ciattarelli.
Non-Hispanic white voters lean in Ciattarelli's favor (46% Sherrill to 53% Ciattarelli), but Sherrill leads by 30 points among nonwhite voters (59% to 29%). Sherrill is a clear favorite among voters 65 years or older (61% to 36%), whereas younger cohorts are more mixed - 49% to 43% among those 18 to 34, 39% to 53% among those 35 to 49, and 49% to 48% among those 50 to 64. Sherill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (61% to 35%), while Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college education or less (38% to 55%).
Regardless of who voters prefer, 43% think Sherrill will win and 42% think Ciattarelli will win; less than 1% say someone else will win and 15% are unsure.
President Donald Trump continues to loom large over the race, with 52% of voters saying he is a "major factor" in their vote for governor, 14% saying he is a "minor" one and 34% saying he isn't a factor at all.
Democrats are much more prone to say Trump is a "major factor" for them (78%) than Republicans (38%). Four in 10 independents (42%) say Trump is a "major factor" for them, 20% a "minor" one and 38% not a factor at all.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are neck-and-neck when it comes to who voters trust to do a better job handling a variety of fiscal issues.
Voters are split on who would better handle the cost of living and affordability (42% say Sherrill, 41% say Ciattarelli), New Jersey's economy and jobs (40% say Sherrill, 46% say Ciattarelli), the state budget and government spending (39% say Sherrill, 45% say Ciattarelli), and taxes (37% say Sherrill, 44% say Ciattarelli). Voters are also divided when it comes to education and schools (47% say Sherrill, 40% say Ciattarelli), as well as transportation and infrastructure (41% say Sherrill, 40% say Ciattarelli).
Sherrill is the clear favorite with likely voters on health care (50% to 35%), while Ciattarelli is the clear favorite on crime and safety (49% to 35%).
Forty-two percent of likely voters are favorable toward Sherrill as the election draws near, while 45% are unfavorable, 11% have no opinion, and 2% don't know who she is. Forty-one percent of likely voters are favorable toward Ciattarelli, while 47% are unfavorable, 9% have no opinion, and 2% don't know who he is.
Results are from a statewide poll of 795 likely voters contacted via live calling and texting from Oct. 3 to Oct. 17. This likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
