Tropical Low 29U Targets Queensland

But our focus for this video here is this tropical low, 29U in the Coral Sea. This is its current location, it's about just over 500 km to the north-east of Cairns. It's north of Willis Island, and it's still quite a long way away from the country, but it is moving this way on a south-westward trajectory, and of course that is taking it closer to Queensland.

So let's put the track map on to show where we expect this weather system to move in the next few days. Likely to continue its path in the south-west, taking it towards Queensland and it's going to take the best part of two days to cross that 500 km of ocean and likely to reach the Queensland coast somewhere around the middle of the day on Friday. Notice how right along this track we've got the L symbol for a tropical low, and that is the current forecast for what this weather system will be, a tropical low pressure area.

There is definitely a chance that this could intensify further and become a tropical cyclone and that has been assessed as a moderate risk by the tropical cyclone experts here at the Bureau, but even if this weather system remains as a tropical low pressure area, that's a pretty powerful weather system and that can still have some serious impacts where it does affect on the coast.

So as we zoom in near this likely arrival point, we have got this watch zone for the most likely areas that this weather system could impact. The watch zone extends from Cooktown in the north down to Lucinda in the south. It includes Palm Island and it includes the coastal communities of Cardwell, Innisfail, Cairns and Port Douglas. This region is where we're likely to see the arrival of gale-force winds, perhaps not in the next 24 hours, but the 24 hours after that.

From the middle of the day Thursday through to the middle of the day Friday, the winds could really whip up across this stretch of coast, but wind is certainly not going to be the only weather impact as this tropical low, 29U, arrives. In fact, it could be that the rain and the possible flooding are even more impactful than any wind damage that we do see. Flash and riverine flooding are both possible across north-eastern parts of Queensland, particularly on Friday and heading into the weekend as this weather system does arrive.

Large parts of northern Queensland have had a wet few months over the course of the wet season. That means the ground is saturated in many areas. Any further rainfall, particularly if it comes in heavily with this tropical system, could have a very swift and severe flood response either along the rivers or just anywhere that that rain falls heavily enough and cannot drain away.

Alongside the flash and riverine flooding risk in the coming days, we certainly could see some wind damage. That could be damage to trees, damage to property or possible power outages and that combination of wind and rain is likely to lead to road closures, potentially some widespread disruption and delays on the roads. and maybe even some community isolation. I would like to break this down day by day. We can just see how things are shaping up.

So for today, for Wednesday, this weather system is quite a long way off the coast and over mainland Queensland, we don't expect any severe weather or major impacts. So today is a good day to prepare for some upcoming more severe weather. Thursday, it gets a lot closer during the course of the day, particularly as we reach the end of Thursday.

The system gets closer to the coastline, closer to Cairns. We'll see the wind pick up along the coast. We'll see rain, showers and storms spreading through north-eastern parts of Queensland and right across the peninsula. Further south, spots like Townsville and down towards Mackay could see some shower activity building, but the heavier rain is certainly expected further north.

Friday is shaping up as a really key day. That is the day where we're most likely to see this weather system reach the coast, potentially bringing its most severe impacts in terms of those damaging to destructive winds and that heavy rain and flooding onto coastal communities. After it has crossed the coast, we'll probably continue to see this weather system move out towards the west.

There are still a few scenarios in play as to where this weather system could go, but it's looking most likely it will stay in the northern half of Queensland and bring rain and potential flooding out towards the Northern Territory border. There is a chance that this weather system could head to the south, bringing some heavy falls through interior and potentially southern parts of Queensland but at this stage that is looking increasingly unlikely.

This is the total accumulated rainfall over the next few days, and I don't really want to focus too much on the exact numbers that we see on this map here, but the key message is widespread falls focused on northern and eastern Queensland, but also pushing through central and western parts, and that is very important because central and western parts are still facing an ongoing flood situation from recent rainfall over the past couple of months.

Lots of rain throughout the wet season has left these rivers swollen through central parts of the state. There are a number of Major Flood Warnings in place for rivers across western, central and even northern Queensland and if this weather system does push inland, we are expecting to see a lot more rain fall across these already wet catchments and these already swollen rivers.

That is likely to prolong the flood situation through Queensland for several more weeks. So lots of wet weather to come across the state and definitely a good week to keep up to date with tropical cyclone information, your forecasts and of course any warnings that get issued in the coming few days.

All that information is available on the Bureau's website and the BOM Weather app. Thanks for watching and stay safe.