Currently, we're monitoring not one, but two tropical low pressure areas across northern parts of the country, straddling either side of the Cape York Peninsula. The system off the east coast, called Tropical Low 12U, will be the most significant of the two. Tropical Low 13U, out in the Gulf of Carpentaria, may increase rainfall over parts of the Peninsula before weakening. There's a band of rain between these two lows across the north tropical coast, which has already brought moderate to locally heavy falls overnight and this morning. More rain is also out over the water, wrapping around the low pressure area.
As this system moves towards the coast, it will bring rainfall to northern parts of Queensland. The tropical cyclone forecast team has assessed that there is a moderate risk, between 40% and 50%, that this system could become a tropical cyclone before reaching the coastline. Even if that doesn't happen, this system will still bring significant rainfall to the region. For this reason, a Severe Weather Warning has already been issued for parts of the east coast, where heavy rainfall and damaging winds are possible.
The warning area stretches from north of Cooktown, past Port Douglas and Cairns, through Townsville, Ayr, and Bowen, all the way to Hamilton Island. In this area, heavy to intense rainfall is expected, with the possibility of up to 100mm in a six-hour period on Friday and up to 250mm over a 24-hour period. Intense rainfall means some regions could see even higher totals. There will also be a risk of damaging wind gusts, particularly along the coast, with gusts reaching up to 90 km/h.
These conditions are expected to develop on Friday as the weather system approaches, but the key area of focus will be during the weekend. The system, whether a tropical cyclone or not, is likely to cross the coast on Saturday afternoon, bringing widespread rainfall to Queensland. This could extend from as far north as Port Douglas or even further north, all the way down the east coast to Mackay, Capricornia, and potentially Wide Bay, as well as pushing inland towards areas like Winton and Longreach. Rainfall is expected to be extensive, with significant accumulations possible between Friday and Monday.
Heavy falls are likely along the east coast, particularly between Cairns and Mackay, with some areas further south also at risk. The Central Highlands, Northern Goldfields, Upper Flinders, and parts of the Central West could also see significant rainfall. This is especially concerning given the recent rain across the north of the state. Persistent heavy falls between Christmas and today have already caused river flooding in the north.
Major flooding is occurring along the Flinders River, including around Winton, while moderate flooding is affecting the Norman River, Georgina River, and the Herbert River. Minor flooding is also occurring in several rivers along the coast and inland. The Flood Watch (marked in purple on the map) highlights areas where we're concerned further flooding could occur based on rainfall forecasts for the next few days.
If you live in Central or North Queensland, it's crucial to stay up to date with the latest weather warnings and flood warnings over the coming days. Flooding could bring risks to property, life, and livestock, and may result in road closures and the isolation of communities. Agriculture and farming could also be significantly impacted.
With a lot of weather ahead, especially for the northern half of the state and potentially areas further south, this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on. Be sure to check the forecast regularly to stay informed about developments throughout the weekend and into next week. You can find the latest information on the Bureau's website and app. Thanks for watching.
Video current: 01:00 pm AEST Thursday 08/01/26.
