President Donald J. Trump was right again: Democrats' reckless 43-day shutdown deliberately blunted our economic momentum last year and cost the American people meaningful growth. Yet even with Democrats' self-inflicted economic harm, today's GDP report shows robust growth in 2025, fueled by surging business investment, private-sector job creation, and strong wage gains that surpassed economists' expectations - with President Trump's America First agenda poised to surge even higher in 2026.
For months, the Trump Administration repeatedly warned about the damage the Democrat Shutdown would cause:
Council of Economic Advisers (10/1/25): "CEA analysis indicates that the shutdown may have wide-ranging economic effects that reduce American prospects through lower growth… These effects will intensify the longer the shutdown lasts."
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (10/2/25): "This isn't the way to have a discussion, shutting down the government and lowering the GDP… We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth, and a hit to working America."
The White House (10/3/25): All 50 States Will See Devastating Economic Hit in Democrat Shutdown
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett (10/5/25): "It's just commonsense to avoid layoffs like that, to avoid the $15 billion a week that the Council of Economic Advisers says will harm GDP."
Secretary Bessent (11/9/25): "There are estimates that the economy - economic growth for this quarter - could be cut by as much as half."
Director Hassett (11/9/25): "Goldman Sachs - they have a top economic team - and they're estimating that we've already knocked about 1.5% off of GDP. I think that number is probably low if we keep going…"
Secretary Bessent (12/16/25): "They were unable to stop President Trump. They tried to stop him in the courts. They tried to stop in the media. Then they went to the extreme - we had the longest government shutdown in history. It was a hit to GDP."
President Trump (12/29/25): "Had the shutdown not occurred, we would've had an extra point and a quarter."
President Trump (1/13/26): "That's despite the Democrat Shutdown, where we lost at least one-and-a-half points."
President Trump (1/29/26): "Without the shutdown, we would have picked up about a point and a half more…"
President Trump (2/2/26): "We lost a point and a half because of the 43-day shutdown."
President Trump (2/8/26): We had a [43-day] shutdown. I call it the 'Democrat Shutdown,' and because of that, I lost a point-and-a-half."
It wasn't just the Trump Administration sounding the alarm. Outside economists and other voices confirmed the Democrat Shutdown's toll on growth:
CNN's Matt Egan (9/29/25): "The rule of thumb is that each week of a government shutdown trims about 0.2 percentage points from gross domestic product (GDP) - or economic growth."
Congressional Budget Office (10/29/25): "The agency estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP), which has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation, will be lower in the fourth quarter of 2025 than it would have been in the absence of a shutdown. Depending on its length, the government shutdown will reduce annualized real GDP growth in that quarter by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points."
Goldman Sachs (11/2/25): "Assuming the shutdown lasts roughly six weeks, we expect it to reduce quarter-on-quarter annualized real GDP growth in 4Q2025 by 1.15pp…"
EY-Parthenon (11/7/25): "If it extends for two months - with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit disruptions and air-travel reductions - the cumulative drag could reach 1.8-2.0ppt, a material hit even after partial recovery once operations resume."
