Ahead of the critical climate summit in Belém, a new report from Earth4All argues that Brazil's greatest assets in tackling the climate crisis are not only its vast forests and renewable energy potential, but the power of trust and social cohesion.
The study, Earth4All: Brazil , identifies possible future scenarios for the country and shows that policies promoting fairness, inclusion and institutional trust are decisive for accelerating decarbonisation and building resilience. Without them, progress risks stalling in the face of inequality and social division.
"Our analysis shows that when trust and fairness increase, public resistance to change falls," said Sandrine Dixson-Declève, executive chair of Earth4All. "This enables faster reforms and ultimately delivers stronger climate outcomes."
Drawing on system dynamics modelling and input from a commission of national and international experts, the report explores how coordinated reforms or "extraordinary turnarounds" across five areas - poverty, inequality, empowerment, food, and energy - can deliver both climate stability and shared prosperity. It concludes that ambitious domestic action, aligned with global efforts, could eradicate poverty in Brazil before 2040, expand renewable energy, and strengthen Brazil's capacity to withstand future shocks.
Its findings align with those of the global Earth4All analysis, published in Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity in 2022, and subsequent national analyses showing that ambitious action targeted to specific geographical challenges can deliver economic wellbeing and resilience to future shocks and stresses.
The report includes data from a major global survey , conducted for Earth4All by Ipsos which included Brazil, that reveals a powerful mandate for change: 81% of Brazilians say major action is needed this decade to protect the climate and nature, yet only 35% believe their government is doing enough. 76% agree that there is too much inequality in the country. The report recommends policies such as progressive wealth and ecological taxes, a climate-poverty sovereign wealth fund co-governed by marginalised communities, and conditional rural credit tied to verified sustainability criteria.
The "Giant Leap" scenario identified by the report - featuring strong national and global action - shows Brazil transforming into a renewable energy powerhouse, restoring degraded lands, and reducing inequality through inclusive governance. The "Too Little Too Late" scenario of incremental action, by contrast, would lock in higher emissions, deepen social tensions, and weaken democratic trust.
The study also calls on Brazil to champion a Global Climate and Nature Council to coordinate global responses to ecological tipping points, aligning with the COP30 Presidency's push for integrated climate–nature governance.
"We asked: if we know the solutions, why are we not making progress on climate? Our analysis across the globe increasingly shows that trust and fairness are not peripheral to climate policy - they are the foundations of it," said Dixson-Declève. "By implementing five extraordinary turnarounds adapted to Brazil's needs, Brazil can build a model of inclusive transition that unites environmental ambition with social justice and inspire other countries. COP30 is a decisive moment for setting the course of long-term action and Brazil can use this opportunity to show real leadership on the interlinked issues of climate, social equity and wellbeing."
Carlos Nobre, co-chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon and chair of the Earth4All Brazil Transformational Economics and Planetary Sciences Commission, said: "The findings of this report are refreshingly straightforward: climate stability, social cohesion and shared prosperity rise or fall together. Push one without the others and progress stalls. Advance them together and Brazil can unlock a step-change in emissions reduction, environmental protection to avoid biomes' tipping points, economic competitiveness, fiscal stability and human flourishing."
