The UK now uses less energy than almost anyone anticipated 20 years ago, but opportunities to act on this potential were largely missed, according to a new report published by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at The University of Manchester today.
'Decarbonising the UK revisited: reflecting on 20 years of UK energy system scenarios and their policy implications', published to mark the Centre's 25th anniversary, looks back at the Tyndall Centre's own energy scenarios, alongside more than 80 others produced in the 2000s. The study found that while most scenarios assumed some level of reduction in energy demand, only one - Tyndall Centre's "Red" scenario - came close to predicting the UK's actual energy demand in 2022.
The researchers say this mismatch reveals that early scenarios often focused on untested technologies while overlooking practical and proven ways to reduce energy use, such as improving public transport, insulating homes, and reducing air travel.
They identified that these modelling choices often influenced policy debates, with optimism about new technologies often overshadowing everyday solutions, potentially limiting the scope of decarbonisation deemed possible by policymakers.
By comparing the envisioned futures with the UK energy system changes that actually emerged, the authors show where foresight was limited, where assumptions proved overambitious, and where genuine transformation was underestimated.
The report also reflects on two decades of Tyndall Centre's research. Starting with the Royal Commission's 60% carbon cut target by 2050, the Tyndall Centre helped bring carbon budgets to the centre of UK climate policy and highlighted the need for action across all sectors, including aviation and shipping,.
The authors argue that energy scenarios aiming to support an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, must explore a wider range of options, with greater focus on proven solutions such as efficiency, lifestyle change, and equity. Doing so would open up more options for policymakers to deliver on their climate ambition, reduce reliance on unproven technologies, and align the UK's energy pathways more closely with climate science.
Decarbonising the UK revisited is being launched at the Tyndall Centre's 25th Anniversary Conference at the University of East Anglia (UEA) on Monday, 8 September. Our Critical Decade for Climate Action is a major meeting for 300 researchers from 20 countries.
The report is part of a wider project at Tyndall Centre that explores how energy scenarios influence policy and what lessons can be drawn halfway through this critical decade for climate action.
Read the full report here: https://doi.org/10.71535/483973be-4477-4fe2-8adc-44cd21d392c6
