Findings highlight the expanding footprint of destruction and the increasing complexity in restoring systems essential for economic recovery and social well‑being
KYIV, Ukraine, February 23, 2026-Four years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) released today by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations currently estimates that as of 31 December 2025, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is almost $588 billion (over €500 billion) over the next decade, which is nearly 3 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2025.
With the support of development partners, the Government of Ukraine is taking significant steps to meet recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2026, including public investment projects and essential recovery support programs such as funding for destroyed housing, demining, and multisector economic support programs, totaling more than $15 billion. In addition, per the available information collected under the RDNA assessment, at least $20 billion in needs have already been met since February 2022 through urgent repairs and early recovery activities in housing, energy, education, transport, and other essential sectors.
"Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the total cost of Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade, nearly three times the country's projected nominal GDP for 2025," noted Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko. "Amid unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people show resilience, our entrepreneurs keep working. We still manage to recover fast and develop further. I thank the World Bank, EU, and UN teams for supporting our efforts to stand against the challenges. The assistance helps us urgently repair our critical infrastructure to keep the country running as well as continue systematic recovery activities focusing on energy projects and housing for our people."
The latest update presents an overview of nearly four years of impact, covering 46 months between February 2022 and December 2025. It finds that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached over $195 billion (€166 billion), up from $176 billion (€150 billion) in the RDNA4 of February 2025, with housing, transport, and energy sectors being most affected. Damage, losses, and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas.
In the energy sector, which has been subject to increased attacks as Ukraine endures a winter of record intensity, there has been an approximately 21 percent increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the RDNA4, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure, and district heating. In the transport sector, needs have increased by around 24 percent since RDNA4 and are the result of intensified attacks on rail and ports during 2025. As of December 31, 2025, 14 percent of housing has been damaged or destroyed, impacting over three million households.
"Despite the widespread damage that continues to mount against Ukraine's people, economy and infrastructure, the entire country continues to press on with remarkable strength and resolve," said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Managing Director of Operations. "The World Bank Group stands firmly committed to supporting Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction and helping to advance the people of Ukraine with jobs, opportunities and hope in a resilient, modern, and competitive economy."
Ukraine's private sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of unprecedented disruption and will play a critical role in recovery and reconstruction. The RDNA5 underscores that unlocking the full potential of private investment-both domestic and international-will depend on sustained reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen competition, expand access to finance, address labor constraints, and align production with EU green and digital standards.
Promoting sustainable and inclusive development and job creation, and integrated approaches to resilient recovery at the local level-such as through the Government's pilot Comprehensive Restoration program-will also be essential. The RDNA5 findings complement the reform and investment agenda of the Ukraine Facility, grounded in the EU accession process, for the next two years.
"Russia's war of aggression continues to have a devastating impact on Ukraine," said EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. "The EU will continue to play a key role in supporting Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery by mobilizing more private investments through the Ukraine Investment Framework, and by encouraging key reforms through the Ukraine Plan that will attract investment and bring Ukraine closer to EU membership."
Of the total long-term needs, reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the transport sector (over $96 billion (€82 billion)). This is followed by the energy sector (nearly $91 billion (€77 billion)), the housing sector (almost $90 billion (€77 billion)), commerce and industry sector (over $63 billion (€54 billion)), and agriculture sector (over $55 billion (€47 billion)). The cost of explosives hazard management and debris clearance is almost $28 billion (€24 billion), despite some progress in surveying and demining that helped to contain losses in this sector.
"People are central to recovery," said Matthias Schmale, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine. "Ukraine's most critical asset is its people. Refugee return, veteran reintegration, and women's labor force participation will shape economic recovery as much as capital flows and rebuilding infrastructure. Recovery must be human-centered and community-based."
The RDNA5 acknowledges the Government of Ukraine's efforts to build a forward looking, inclusive, and resilient economic model anchored in postwar recovery planning and long-term growth and underscores the pivotal role played by EU accession and reforms under the Ukraine Plan, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank Group supported programs. The Government's emerging postwar economic strategy-the Ukraine Economy of the Future (UEF)-focuses on macrofiscal stability, governance and rule of law reforms, private sector dynamism, infrastructure rebuilding, and investments in human capital and social sustainability. These efforts will help to strengthen confidence among citizens, investors, and partners and position Ukraine for accelerated EU convergence and long-term prosperity.
Editorial note: All EUR estimates use the Dec 31, 2025, USD/EUR exchange rate.
