Starting with today, we are seeing a low-pressure trough lying across inland parts of Western Australia. That will generate areas of showers and thunderstorms through WA's interior, extending across western parts of South Australia as well. For the most part, rainfall totals will be low. Looking at the thunderstorm forecast for today, we can see that storms are possible throughout those areas. In fact, the storm risk actually extends throughout southern South Australia and into the south-east as well. But for these south-eastern areas, storms are likely to be isolated and non-severe.
Our focus is really in the west, where we could see severe thunderstorms today, as indicated by this yellow area here. Any storms that do tend severe today may produce the risk of locally damaging wind gusts, so be on the watch for any warnings we need to issue later this afternoon.
Moving into tomorrow, our low-pressure trough is going to strengthen into a cold front, with a low-pressure system starting to develop to the south of the mainland. This system will gradually move eastwards through the day, driving rain areas, showers and storms throughout South Australia and into Victoria as well. Looking at our thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow, we can see that storms are once again a risk throughout those areas. Again, there is a possibility of storms further east as well, but those will be fairly isolated. Severe storms are possible tomorrow through parts of western South Australia, extending down towards the Eyre Peninsula as well. Any severe thunderstorms tomorrow may produce the risk of damaging winds or large hailstones. So again, it's a good idea to keep an eye on the Bureau's website for any warning updates at that time.
Wednesday is going to be the busiest day. This is when we're going to see our cold front and low-pressure system continuing to move south-east, driving that risk of severe weather across the south-eastern states. I say it's going to be a busy day because this is when our low-pressure system really starts to ramp up, drawing moisture across New South Wales and Victoria and dragging in very strong winds around that system. You can see these much brighter red colours pulling up behind that system there.
In fact, I want to take a closer look at the winds. I'm going to do that by looking at the winds above the surface, around 1.5 km above the ground, to get a sense of how strong those top wind gusts might be that reach the ground. Starting with midnight on Wednesday morning, we're going to see this system starting to move south-eastwards, gathering momentum as it moves, with the winds starting to ramp up. The red colours are emerging on our map, then the pinks and the purples. By the afternoon, we've got these areas of black, grey and white indicating the potential for very strong wind gusts, particularly through the south-east. It is likely we will see Severe Weather Warnings for widespread damaging wind gusts issued, most likely across south-east South Australia, southern and mountain Victoria, and parts of eastern New South Wales. Now, we could even see some locally destructive wind gusts in some of these areas as this system moves through, most likely with showers or thunderstorms.
Speaking of thunderstorms, let's take a look at the thunderstorm forecast for Wednesday. Storms once again are possible throughout the south-east, including across Adelaide, Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney. The yellow area shows us where severe storms are possible throughout many of those areas once again, including much of Victoria, and inland and eastern New South Wales. In fact, we could see severe storms bringing damaging wind gusts to parts of the Melbourne area on Wednesday, as well as parts of the Illawarra and the western suburbs of Sydney. This is really going to be a day of acute severe weather risk, so it's essential to stay on top of what's happening at that time.
By Thursday, we're going to see our system retreating, moving off across the Tasman Sea. It'll be wet and windy on Thursday morning, but conditions will quickly settle down as the day goes on and our weather system moves away.
Let's take a look at the rainfall totals we're expecting over the next few days. We'll see the rain building as our system moves east, with the higher totals possible across those south-eastern areas. Generally fairly modest falls, but a few areas could see 50 mm or more accumulating over the next few days, most likely where those thunderstorms develop.
Finally, to recap a few of the key hazards we're looking at over the next few days. Firstly, the gusty, potentially severe thunderstorms that are moving through southern and then south-eastern Australia. The very windy conditions we're expecting on Wednesday across the south-eastern states, and then the moderate rainfall we could see through parts of the south-east as this system moves through. We are going to keep you updated with Severe Weather Updates on this system over the next few days, so you'll be able to find all the latest on that situation via the Bureau's website, the BOM Weather app, and via our social media. Stay safe, and we'll catch you next time.
Video current: 12:00 pm AEDT Monday 20/10/25.
