A conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would be particularly consequential for Australia. Our vital trade to and from North Asia (including with Taiwan) would be disrupted, the strategic balance of power in the Indo-Pacific would tip towards China if Beijing were to win, and a vibrant democracy of 23 million people would be lost. While some continue to argue that Taiwan isn't a vital Australian interest, neither disrupted trade, large states invading smaller neighbours, nor a Sino-led regional order is in Australia's interest. The notion that countries such as Australia and Japan could ignore a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is akin to saying European nations could have ignored Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
While the public NDS is understandably not explicit about the specific threats Australia needs to deter and perhaps defend against, it's worth outlining what those broad threats might practically look like in order to assist in describing to the Australian public the size, shape and cost of the defence capability that the NDS is seeking to build. This paper breaks down the specific roles of People's Liberation Army commands and their likely responsibilities in a conflict with Taiwan. In particular, this paper looks at the PLA Southern Theatre Command—the military command with responsibilities extending into the South China Sea adjacent to Australia's primary area of military interest. This detail is important to better understand the PLA so as to assist with strategic planning and the development of our own capabilities to counter military activity against us. Such detail is also important to ensure that the public is both informed about how much effort China is putting into securing its strategic objectives through boosting its defence capabilities and also reassured by the knowledge that Australia has a strategy to prevent or manage the threat.
