Despite growing nationwide unrest in Iran, the United States and its European allies are increasingly distancing themselves from Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, reflecting broad scepticism that the U.S.-based son of Iran’s last shah could unite the country or credibly lead it through a potential political transition if the clerical regime falls, according to Western officials and analysts.
Pahlavi, the 65-year-old son of Iran’s last shah, has emerged as a visible voice supporting nationwide protests and calling on Iranians to continue demonstrations.
U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly ruled out meeting Pahlavi, signalling that Washington is not prepared to back a successor to Iran’s ruling system should it collapse. European diplomats say the hesitation is shared across Western capitals.
At the core of the reluctance is a widely held view that Pahlavi lacks both political legitimacy inside Iran and the experience needed to navigate one of the Middle East’s most complex states.
Analysts say Trump, who has repeatedly expressed admiration for strongman leaders, is unlikely to view Pahlavi as the kind of “tough guy” figure capable of imposing order during turbulent processes.
European diplomats share similar concerns, saying Tehran’s unrest is largely driven by economic grievances and demands for broader reform rather than loyalty to a single figure.
Many protesters demand democratic change rather than another dictatorship and have not coalesced around Pahlavi as a central leader.
Beyond questions of experience and support, Western officials and researchers say Pahlavi is not seen as a unifying figure and his historical legacy poses additional challenges.
While he retains symbolic support among some monarchists abroad, many inside Iran associate the Pahlavi name with political exclusion, repression and forced assimilation.
Iran is a multi-ethnic society, with roughly half its population belonging to non-Persian groups, including Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis and Turkmen, according to academic estimates.
For example, most mainstream estimates on the number of ethnic minorities in Iran claim that the Persians account for approximately 50% of the country's population.
Most conventional estimates on Azeri population, the second largest after Persians, range from one-fifth to one-third if not higher. Many Azeris fear a Pahlavi restoration would mean a return to oppression, similar to the Pahlavi dynasty's historical actions against non-Persian groups.
Pahlavi era was the darkest period for Azeris. The Azeri language was banned in official spheres with the advent of Reza Shah's reign, including at schools. The current Islamic regime has extended and even refined some of those ethno-nationalist policies.
Both the Pahlavi monarchy and the current Islamic Republic concentrated power in the hands of a Persian-dominated elite while marginalising minorities seeking cultural, linguistic and political rights.
Insisting on "neither the mullahs nor the Pahlavis", most minority movements explicitly reject both the current Islamic Republic and the Pahlavi monarchy, demanding self-determination and a post-monarchy framework that recognizes minority rights.
This remains a concern for Western governments wary of endorsing any post-Islamic Republic model that could reproduce old fault lines.
Officials caution that backing a figure perceived as too closely aligned with past authoritarian rule could deepen divisions and fuel separatism, especially amid fears of a power vacuum that could echo the instability seen in post-Saddam Iraq or Afghanistan transitions.
For now, U.S. and EU statements focus on supporting the Iranian people’s right to peaceful protest and restraint by Tehran’s security forces.
The hesitation primarily stems from a combination of geopolitical risk aversion, the complexities of Iran's internal politics, a desire not to repeat past foreign policy mistakes, and the lack of a universally accepted opposition leader:
- Fear of the Unknown/Instability: Many Western policymakers are hesitant about the potential power vacuum and destabilizing waves that could accompany a sudden regime collapse in Iran, a country with over 90 million people. There are concerns about potential civil war or a scenario mirroring post-Saddam Iraq or Afghanistan transitions.
- Lack of a Clear Alternative: There is no single, unified opposition movement in Iran, and many Iranians view a return to monarchy with suspicion, despite Pahlavi's name recognition. Western governments are wary of appearing to pick a leader for the Iranian people, which could delegitimize any future government.
- Concerns over Past Authoritarianism: Pahlavi is the son of the last Shah, who was a Western-backed monarch toppled by the 1979 revolution. Critics point to the Pahlavi era's own record of centralizing power and marginalizing ethnic minorities, and Western leaders are cautious about endorsing a figure associated with past authoritarian rule or specific ethno-nationalist policies.
- Perceived as Polarizing: Pahlavi's controversial actions, such as a high-profile visit to Israel in 2023 and comments seen as supporting Israeli airstrikes, have been criticized as alienating some Iranians and Arab/Muslim allies, making him a potentially polarizing figure rather than a unifying one.
- Focus on the Iranian People: Current US and EU statements tend to focus on supporting the Iranian people's right to peaceful protest and condemning the government's crackdown, rather than promoting specific opposition figures or explicitly calling for regime change.
- Avoiding Direct Intervention: Leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump have indicated a willingness to apply pressure and support protesters but have specifically ruled out military intervention or "boots on the ground," fearing entanglement in a civil war. Meeting with Pahlavi as president was deemed "not appropriate" by Trump, signaling caution about anointing a successor.
- Reza Pahlavi's Lack of Experience: At the core of the reluctance is a widely held view that Pahlavi lacks both political legitimacy inside Iran and the leadership experience needed to navigate one of the Middle East’s most complex states.
