The UN climate conference is once again on the horizon. Political scientist Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen is attending COP28 primarily to study the political process. Program Leader Green Climate Solutions Tim van Hattum aims to inspire the adoption of solutions inspired by nature. Why are they heading to Dubai?
Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen's expertise lies in dissecting the political dynamics among nations negotiating at the highest levels and how it ultimately shapes the climate policies these nations develop. She can articulate the stakes involved in COP28, scheduled from November 30th to December 12th in Dubai.
The target of limiting global warming to - ideally - 1.5 degrees Celsius was established in the 2015 Paris Agreement. It also outlined how countries' collective efforts should be evaluated every five years. Subsequently, countries devised their own plans. The first collective evaluation of progress, termed the Global Stocktake, has been in process for over a year and its technical phase is finished. "It is no surprise that we are not on track," says Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen. So what comes next? "At COP28 there will be the political and final process of this Stocktake. Countries will negotiate a statement-a response to the Stocktake's outcomes.
Urge and encourage
Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen emphasizes that no enforceable decisions or plans are formulated at COP, despite media portrayal suggesting otherwise. It is, for example, up to countries themselves to decide how to take on board the outcome of the Stocktake. Any statements made can only urge and to encourage countries to take more action on climate mitigation and adaptation. At COP28, negotiations will also commence regarding a new financial target-what rich nations should offer developing ones to aid climate action. These negotiations will be challenging," she explains.
Surrounding the negotiations during the two week COP, there is an extensive program with sessions ('side-events') on various subtopics, in which WUR-researchers participate with their expertise. "Knowledge institutions like WUR can provide substantial guidance on identifying opportunities for climate action. This meeting is not about how much in trouble we are. It should be about offering evidence-based knowledge on solutions, strategies, and technologies," explains Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen. "How can we enhance mitigation, adaptation, and governance? There are countless opportunities to assist our governments and other stakeholders because in the upcoming years, the focus will solely be on intensifying action."
Nature-based solutions on the agenda
Tim van Hattum is one of the researchers traveling to Dubai for this reason. Collaborating with the World Wide Fund for Nature, he will conduct a session on nature-based solutions. Ideally, from a climate perspective, he wouldn't attend COP, but the significance of his subject ultimately prevailed. "Nature-based solutions must take a higher priority on the agenda. I aim to persuade as many people as possible of this," he states.
According to Van Hattum, climate discussions often revolve around an important yet limited aspect of the solution. "Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by focusing on technical measures, such as energy transition, is crucial. However, I hope nature-based solutions and transforming the food system gain higher priority. While it's receiving more attention, it remains underemphasized. We must seize every opportunity to keep the 1.5-degree target in focus."
Next level: A nature-based vision for the earth
During the session organised by Van Hattum, he will discuss the importance of imagining a nature-positive future for Europe in 2120 once again. This inspiring, green vision for Europe took center stage during the Mansholt Lecture he delivered on September 20th in Brussels. "We aim to demonstrate why and how nature-based solutions can accelerate climate action. The message is that we need this on an enormous scale. It would be fantastic to disseminate this message as broadly as possible at COP28."
