This election, a lot of focus was directed at young voters. With Millennials and Gen Z now making up a larger share of the electorate than Baby Boomers, this was deserved.
Author
- Intifar Chowdhury
Lecturer in Government, Flinders University
But for all the attempts to reach these cohorts, whether through TikTok , influencers or podcasts , how did they actually vote?
Preliminary analysis of electorates with high shares of young people suggests the youth vote was complex and nuanced. The voting bloc continued its unpredictability, with support fragmented across parties, candidates and age groups.
Analysing voting patterns
On May 9, I analysed the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) electoral division results alongside youth enrolment statistics , to explore how the youngest electorates voted.
Rather than treating voters aged 18-44 as a single, homogeneous bloc, I separated them into Gen Z (aged 18-29) and Millennial (aged 30-44) categories. Evidence suggests that generation is more useful for analysis than age alone.
Electorates with higher shares of young people tended to favour the left, particularly Labor. Even in Liberal-held seats that didn't change hands, there were clear swings against the Coalition.
Of course, electoral outcomes are shaped by more than age or generational factors. Seat-level voting reflects a complex mix of influences.
But while we await individual-level public opinion data, the best available insights come from examining electoral division characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census data .
What happened?
Surprisingly, the Greens lost three of the country's most youth-concentrated electorates: Melbourne , Brisbane and Griffith .
In Melbourne - still the electorate with the highest share of Gen Z voters - the Greens retained the largest primary vote, but lost the seat on preferences.
However, in Griffith, Labor had a higher primary vote, while in Brisbane, both major parties outpolled the Greens.
These electorates also have high percentages of renters, public servants, and residents earning above $90,000 a year - demographics that did not necessarily advantage the Greens. In fact, higher-income areas showed a slight lean towards the Liberals.
Other electorates with large youth shares also showed interesting dynamics. In La Trobe and Lindsay , both held by the Liberals but with growing shares of Millennials and renters, there were swings against the party.
Labor experienced swings against them in seats such as Solomon , Wills and Pearce .
Wills maintained a strong Greens primary vote, while Solomon recorded a significant independent vote. This is consistent with high shares of renters, public servants against the Coalition and tertiary-educated women, who are more likely to support minor parties and independents.
These patterns suggest a quiet divergence between Millennial and Gen Z voters. Millennials, while more likely than older generations to support progressive parties like Labor and, to a lesser extent, the Greens, do not show the same enthusiasm for independents. This indicates Millennials remain more aligned with traditional party politics.
In contrast, Gen Z voters appear more willing to abandon major parties altogether. This is a generational difference in values and political socialisation, but also a broader shift toward issue-based, campaign-sensitive, less predictable polling.
A fragmented young electorate
Even when we take into account the demographic makeup of seats, for a deeper analysis, disentangling the effects of overlapping factors is important. For example, as researcher Nicholas Biddle points out , age and renting are often correlated, so which variable is doing the explanatory work? Is it youth itself, housing tenure, or something else entirely? I dug deeper.
This further exploration revealed housing and employment factors played a role, even when we account for generational differences.
Electorates with high shares of renters were significantly more likely to support Labor and less likely to vote Liberal. Public-sector workers leaned clearly towards Labor and away from the Coalition.
Meanwhile, higher-income electorates (earning more than $90,000 a year) showed a slight, but not statistically significant, movement toward the Liberals and independents, and away from Labor and the Greens.
Electorates with a larger share of overseas-born residents also leaned modestly toward Labor, likely reflecting swings in areas with significant Chinese populations.
It's difficult to know much about gender yet as we don't have access to the right data. But we can find the intersecting effect of gender with other variables, such as higher education.
This revealed one of the most striking findings: the strongest positive predictor of a Greens or independent vote, removing all other variables, was the share of university-educated women. These voters consistently turned away from both major parties.
By contrast, electorates with more tertiary-educated people overall, but not specifically women, were more likely to stick with the major parties.
With younger generations containing more university-educated women than ever before, this is sobering news for both Labor and the Liberals.
Big takeaways
One mistake we keep making is treating the youth vote as a single bloc. This election reminds us there are two generations within the youth base.
Gen Z are still in their political formative years and they're showing signs of drifting further from the major parties.
But Millennials, while still firmly left-leaning, seem to remain anchored to the two-party system.
Perhaps it's a sign of political "adulting" - a recognition that minor parties and independents can struggle to wield power in the lower house.
Labor can still bank on Millennials, for now. But Gen Z, especially those who are highly educated, are the cohort to watch. They're less loyal, and far less convinced that the traditional party structure speaks to them.
There's no way to sugarcoat it for the Liberals: there's no good news here in their current form.
But no party can get complacent.
The modern Australian electorate may lean left overall, but it's also increasingly disillusioned with the majors. Preferential voting may mask this shift, but it doesn't halt it.
The Greens, meanwhile, also have some soul-searching to do. Their campaign didn't collapse, but their primary vote stalled .
To become a serious third party in the House of Representatives, the Greens must grow their primary vote and find a way to hold onto their volatile, youthful base as it ages.
Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
