Ricardo, a world leading environmental consultancy, has released its 2025 Water Markets Report, offering the most comprehensive analysis to date of water markets in Australia's southern Murray–Darling Basin. The report reveals significant changes in the market, marked by rising allocation prices, government buybacks, and increased investor activity.
Now in its 12th year, the Ricardo Water Markets Report provides investors, policymakers, and irrigators with a trusted annual benchmark for tracking the performance and trends of Australia's dynamic water markets.
Key findings from the report include:
- The Ricardo Entitlement Index (REI), which tracks the performance (capital value) of a group of major water entitlements across the southern MDB, rose for the first time in three years, increasing by 3% for 2024–25.
- The total market value of entitlements reached an estimated $31.9 billion, a 3% increase driven by Commonwealth purchases and improving investor confidence.
- Annual allocation prices rose across the year for the first time since 2018-19. Major southern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) zones surged, with prices 89% to 159% higher at the end of the year, and the annual volume-weighted average price (VWAP) across the southern MDB was $153 per ML.
- The largest in-season drawdown on southern MDB water storages in more than two decades – 5,023 GL.
- Entitlement trading volumes increased by 47%, with 198 GL traded outside irrigation corporations, marking the highest volume since 2019–20, with Government buybacks playing a significant role.
- Groundwater market activity rebounded for the first time in five years, as dry conditions led irrigators to diversify their water security strategies.
Ben Williams, Ricardo Associate Director and Water Market Advisory Lead, said, "After three years of declining entitlement values, the market has turned a corner. Commonwealth buybacks have re-emerged as a major force, reshaping price expectations and driving trade activity across the Basin."
The 2024–25 water year was characterised by below-average rainfall, record drawdowns on water storage, and strong demand from both annual crop growers and permanent horticulturalists. Allocation prices rose across the year for the first time since 2018-19, with prices 89% to 159% higher at the end of the year.
The report notes that without significant rainfall, allocation prices across the southern MDB are anticipated to remain high throughout 2025-26. Demand for entitlements is likely to be sustained by ongoing government recovery programs, with some market participants seeking to replace entitlements sold to the Commonwealth.
The report also outlines the status of Commonwealth water recovery, including outcomes from tender programs aimed at recovering the 450 GL for environmental purposes.
