Every time the beef industry or federal government is challenged about Australia's embarrassing rate of deforestation, they point to one statistic: Australia has achieved a net increase in forest cover. Open and shut case, right?
Not so fast! New research by ANU's Andrew Macintosh and Don Butler and Griffith University's Heather Keith and Brendan Mackey pulls back the veil on this claim, revealing how net statistics cover up a devastating reality for nature and climate. We can't limit global heating to 1.5°C or reverse biodiversity decline without ending deforestation. That means stopping the bulldozers, not hiding forest destruction with tricky bookkeeping about forest cover.
We've blown the cover on clever accounting tricks and broken down everything you need to know: what 'forest cover increases' really mean, what's genuinely positive, and what deserves much closer scrutiny.
1. Net forest increase is an accounting trick
Australia claims forest area increased by 0.75 million hectares between 2016 and 2021. But this "net" figure is an accounting trick that hides what's really happening on the ground.
Think of it like this: if you knocked down 100 houses and replaced them with 110 tents, you'd have a net increase in dwellings - but no one would seriously argue that they balance each other out. And yet that's exactly what's happening with Australia's forests. We're destroying valuable old-growth forests rich in carbon and wildlife, and counting sparse regrowth in arid regions as equivalent. Sure, the numbers add up on paper, but we're caught in the net of a mathematical sleight of hand.
2. We're bulldozing the most important forests (and covering our tracks)
Most forest destruction occurs in carbon-dense, species-rich ecosystems: exactly the forests we most need to protect. These productive forests in cooler, wetter forests closer to the coast regions support threatened species and store massive amounts of carbon. Meanwhile, the "gains" happen in sparser, drier areas with far less ecological value.
