A foresight study on plausible futures of industrial development in Kyrgyzstan conducted by IIASA researchers has been featured in a joint report by the International Science Council and the UN Futures Lab titled, Futures thinking and strategic foresight in action: Insights from the Global South.
As a small, landlocked, and open developing economy, Kyrgyzstan has been actively seeking pathways for sustainable economic opportunities. Boosting industrial development has emerged as one of the Government's key priorities. In 2018, IIASA collaborated with UNIDO and the State Committee for Industry, Energy, and Subsoil Use of the Kyrgyz Republic to produce research, which eventually informed the Strategy for the Sustainable Development of the Industry of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2019-2023 and its accompanying Action Plan, officially adopted by Government Decree No. 502 on 27 September 2019.
Like many countries, Kyrgyzstan's national development is closely influenced by global and regional geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. Understanding these factors and their interlinkages with national forces is essential for realistically planning the revival of national industry. Foresight is a powerful tool for informing strategic decision-making and guiding long-term policy planning in the face of uncertainty.
The IIASA team comprising Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Program Director Elena Rovenskaya; Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group Leader, Nadejda Komendantova; Nikita Strelkovskii, a research scholar in the ASA Program; and IIASA Science Diplomacy Officer, Sergey Sizov, conducted a scenario building and planning exercise, which resulted in six plausible scenarios of the future national development of Kyrgyzstan. These scenarios informed policy recommendations aimed at placing Kyrgyzstan on a resilient and sustainable trajectory for industrial development.
This study - one of 14 selected from over 40 submissions - has been featured in the joint report by the International Science Council and the UN Futures Lab titled, Futures thinking and strategic foresight in action: Insights from the Global South. By featuring a range of foresight studies from different regions in the Global South, the report highlights the diversity of foresight practices and offers insights to guide effective strategic planning.
The report was launched as part of the 10th Multi-stakeholder Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for the Sustainable Development Goals at the UN headquarters in New York on 6 May 2025. Rovenskaya was invited to participate in a panel discussion at the report launch event.
"My key take-aways from the exciting discussion we had were, first, that foresight practitioners should remain self-reflexive about their approach and its relevance. Second, institutionalizing foresight in government is essential for long-term impact. Third, futures literacy needs strengthening across stakeholders. Last, not least, foresight isn't a silver bullet-but a valuable tool to support decision-making in settings dominated by uncertainty," she says.
Watch a video regarding of the event and panel discussion below.
