Key points:
- MLA and AWI May Sheep Producer Intentions Survey is now open.
- Results support industry to understand current/future flock demographics, as well as producer intentions and sentiment.
- Decision drivers have changed, placing more focus on personal circumstances and less on business decisions.
Twice a year, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) conduct the Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS). The survey is open for responses throughout May.
One of MLA's essential roles is to collect, analyse and publish insights on the red meat industry. The SPIS is one of the sources MLA analysts use to understand the current, changing and future dynamics of the national sheep flock.
The SPIS is conducted in two waves each financial year – one in October and one in May. The surveys ask producers for their sentiment towards the sheep and wool sectors, current flock demographics and future intentions. In October, all levy payers are provided with a survey which focuses on the lamb cohort, providing an estimate of the total flock size, a profile of the lamb flock and a measure of producer intentions for lambs and breeding ewes. The October wave is followed by a Producer Update on Lamb Sales Estimates, or PULSE Survey.
The May wave, which is currently live, provides an estimate of the total flock size, a profile of the breeding ewe flock and measures of producer intentions for lambs, breeding ewes and wethers, with additional analysis on factors impacting on-farm decision making.
This data helps analysts improve analysis and forecasts, and is used as a tool when developing MLA programs, ensuring that adoption and communication efforts are matching industry sentiment.
You can view results from past reports here.
Insights from previous May waves
MLA analysts have delved into two years of data from a refined version of the SPIS, which provides insight into influences on decision-making.
Drilling down into one of the questions in the May SPIS, we ask producers – What off-farm external factors, other than prices (for wool, lambs and sheep meat), are likely to have the most impact on your on-farm decision-making over the next 6 months?
Unsurprisingly, weather and seasonal conditions were the largest decision drivers for both years, with 31% and 37% of producers noting the driver as a factor. We expect this to hold steady for future editions.
The proportion of producers highlighting weather as a decision driver, however, was different across states. In 2024, Tasmania, Victoria and SA were the states with the largest focus on weather and similarly, had significant lifts from 2023 to 2024. The number of producers highlighting weather as a driver lifted 25% in Tasmania, 11% in Victoria and 7% in SA, reflecting the dry conditions across these south-eastern states. NSW was the only state with fewer respondents noting the weather factor.
The labour driver reduced across all states, reflecting some relief in access to general and shearing labour for sheep businesses, likely through the implementation of successful training and visa programs which have been heavily focused on the issue.
While input costs maintained their top three spot, we did see a reduction from year to year. In 2024, 18% of producers highlighted the decision driver and just 16% in 2023. Along the same line, business factors, driven primarily by interest rates, impacted fewer respondents in 2024, reducing from 16% to 8%. Interest rates peaked in 2023 after a sudden lift and while they haven't returned to pre-COVID levels, producers have been able to manage the impact of changed input costs and interest rates.
The last two years of dry conditions across sheep-focused country have impacted red meat businesses and producers. Personal circumstances such as age, workload and succession are a larger decision driver for producers. This is more pronounced in regions experiencing prolonged dry conditions and uncertainty (SA, Victoria and WA). This highlights 'personal considerations' as an area where the industry may need to place more focus to ensure the longevity and succession of the sector.
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
MLA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness or currency of any information contained in this publication. Your use of, or reliance on, any content is entirely at your own risk and MLA accepts no liability for any losses or damages incurred by you as a result of that use or reliance. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior written consent of MLA. All use of MLA publications, reports and information is subject to MLA's Market Report and Information Terms of Use.
