Confidence Takes Backwards Step

ANZ Bank

• Consumer confidence declined 3.4 points last week to 86 points. The four-week moving average fell 0.2 point to 88.8.

• 'Weekly inflation expectations' rose 0.1 point to 5.0 per cent, while the four-week moving average was steady at 5.0 per cent.

• 'Current financial conditions' (over the last year) declined 3.2 points, while 'future financial conditions' (next 12 months) fell 2.4 points.

• 'Short-term economic confidence' (next 12 months) dropped 4.4 points, and 'medium-term economic confidence' (next five years) declined 3.7 points.

• The 'time to buy a major household item' subindex fell 3.2 points.

"There was a broad-based decline in ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence last week, with all subindices moving backwards. This caused confidence to decline to a two-month low," said ANZ Economist Madeline Dunk.

"Household confidence in the economy also fell to its lowest level since June. The time to buy a major household item subindex is at its softest since May, which is likely seasonal, as May is when end-of-financial year sales events started ramping up. Despite last week's decline, we expect the upward trend in consumer confidence to resume," she said.

"On a four-week moving average basis, confidence is still at its second highest level in more than three years. Household balance sheets look strong and will be supported by rising real household disposable incomes, disinflation and a strong labour market. This should flow through to confidence."

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