More generous unemployment support may help reduce the appeal of populist parties, according to new research.
The study, by researchers Chase Foster (King's College London) and Jeffry Frieden (Columbia University), analysed 134 national elections in 16 countries between 1990 and 2021, alongside data from 11 waves of the European Social Survey.
They found that countries with stronger labour market support systems tended to see lower levels of support for populist parties.
The researchers examined policies including unemployment insurance and government spending on programmes designed to support people out of work or help them return to employment. They found that higher spending in these areas was associated with reduced populist vote shares, even after accounting for factors such as unemployment rates, economic performance, immigration and industrial decline.
The findings suggest that welfare policies aimed specifically at workers facing job insecurity may influence political attitudes by reducing some of the economic pressures that can fuel dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.
The study also found that cuts to unemployment protection were associated with greater support for populist parties. The researchers highlighted reforms and austerity measures introduced in several European countries since the early 2000s as a possible factor contributing to political backlash among groups affected by economic insecurity.
The effect appeared particularly strong among people who had experienced extended periods of unemployment and among current or former trade union members, groups that the researchers say may be especially sensitive to changes in labour market protection.
The authors caution that political support for populist parties is influenced by many factors, including cultural concerns, economic change and attitudes towards institutions.
However, the study argues that the design of the social safety net is an important part of understanding Europe's recent political shifts, suggesting that protecting workers from economic disruption may reduce the sense of grievance that populist movements often seek to mobilise.
They said: "Our findings do not suggest that welfare states or social policies can eliminate populism. Populist movements have sprung up across nearly all OECD countries due to long-term economic and cultural changes tied to trade integration, technological change and immigration. These forces are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
"However, our findings do suggest that national social policies shape the political consequences of these transformations. Economic insecurity remains a powerful driver of political discontent. The design of social policy therefore matters."
