Here's some of what we've seen so far, including 24 hour rainfall totals of about 200mm at Wenlock River to the north of the crossing point, with other areas also getting over 100mm of rain. The majority of that fell in the last six hours, so it does look like we'll see significant further accumulations through the remainder of the day today as the system sweeps through. Some of the other observations we've seen have been wind gusts over 100km now at Lockhart River, likely much stronger than that near the core of the tropical cyclone, and coastal inundation for eastern areas as far south as Cairns. This did reach the coast as a category four system, which is fairly unusual. The last category 4 up in North Queensland was Tropical Cyclone Trevor back in 2019. Today is the key day for the far north of Queensland.
Throughout Friday, this weather system will move basically in a straight line westwards and it will move quite swiftly, so in less than a day it will cross the entire width of the peninsula, likely to drop down to a category two system sometime this afternoon, and then by tonight move back out over the water of the Gulf of Carpentaria. So throughout the remainder of Friday, severe weather impacts across the far north of the state remain likely, including damage to property, trees and plants. With those very strong winds, that could mean a lot of debris out in the wind as well. Flooding through the river network, as well as flash flooding wherever that rain is heaviest, looks very possible across the north today, along with dangerous seas and oceans for both the east and west coast of the peninsula.
Here's the flood watch for North Queensland, and it covers the entire peninsula from the Herbert River down here, right up through the rivers, creeks and streams across Cape York, which could see significant rises as the rain falls. That's Friday coming to a close, and now looking ahead to the weekend, during Saturday this weather system will continue to move westwards through those warm waters of the Gulf, which is likely to cause re-intensification back to a category 3 system. It will take about a day, around 24 hours, to cross the Gulf of Carpentaria, meaning by the very end of the day Saturday, this weather system will be sitting near the east coast of the top end of the Northern Territory, likely just to the north of Groote Island as a category 3 tropical cyclone.
We have preemptively got the tropical cyclone watch out from Nhulunbuy down to Borroloola, including Ngukurr, and this is likely to be upgraded to a warning later on Friday afternoon. Then into Sunday, this is the most important day when it comes to rain and potential flooding across the Northern Territory. We will see a coastal crossing likely as a category three system and then a gradual weakening down to a category one and potentially a tropical low pressure area before the end of the day Sunday, making a line straight westwards through the base of the Northern Territory. Significant rainfall is expected to accumulate as this weather system makes its way through the Northern Territory, with the heaviest falls in a line right along the path as it travels westwards.
This means we could see rainfall in excess of 1 to 200mm along the path of that tropical cyclone, stretching from Alyangula on the east coast to the Katherine area, and out to Wadeye on the western side of the Top End. These rainfall numbers are significant, with isolated values above that during Sunday and into early Monday morning, and are likely to lead to renewed river rises across the top end, including the potential for renewed major flooding around Katherine and Beswick, and prolonged major flooding around the Daly River. These are areas which have been hit very hard by flooding in recent weeks.
Finally, a look out towards the start of next week. Because this weather system is still not done by Monday, it will be crossing the Kimberley, likely as a tropical low pressure area on Monday and into Tuesday. That will likely bring some rainfall and some strong winds to the northern Kimberley, particularly around Kalumburu and areas north of Kununurra. So there are several days to go before we are done and dusted with Tropical Cyclone Narelle. So do stay up to date with the latest from the Bureau, including warnings, tracks and forecasts, and the latest from your local emergency management and SES. Do stay safe. Thanks for watching
Video current: 11:00 am AEST Friday 20/03/26.
