Early next year, the government plans to pass the Employment Relations Amendment Bill (ERAB). This Bill makes it easier for employers to misclassify workers as contractors (thus denying them the basic rights and protections employees have) and trashes the personal grievance system, which is so important in contesting unfair treatment by an employer. One of the overarching economic impacts this Bill will have is to further erode job security. In this month's feature we therefore look at what the research tells us about the broad-reaching impacts of job insecurity on wellbeing.
We also look at the Treasury's latest set of economic and fiscal forecasts, which were released earlier this week alongside the Minister of Finance's Budget Policy Statement. The headline story is that Treasury has once again revised down its forecast economic recovery, with the return to growth slower than was expected at the Budget in May.
Last week, Minister van Velden announced the minimum wage would rise by 2% at April next year, to $23.95. On the Treasury's forecast for inflation, this will mark the third year of real terms cuts to the minimum wage under this government. In 2024, the minimum wage was cut by 2% in real terms. In 2025 it was cut by 1%. Now, on the basis of the Treasury's latest forecast, it will be cut by 0.5% in real terms in 2026. Cumulatively, these cuts are significant. If the Minister had adjusted the minimum wage to maintain pace with inflation over this period, then it would be $24.80 beginning April next year. For a full-time minimum wage worker the cumulative effect is a difference of $34 per week in 2026, or $1,775 for the year in 2026.
In our regular updates, we discuss the September quarter data for GDP, retail trade, and the balance of payments. We also provide the regular monthly updates on inflation, migration, the performance indexes, the confidence indexes, and the government accounts.
