Normal to above-normal rainfall during October-December is likely over northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia, including the island nations. Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some parts of eastern South Asia, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) .
During the season, normal to above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the region, which encompasses Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The southern parts of South Asia - specifically southern India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives - receive significant amounts of rainfall during the October to December season, which is critical for agricultural operations. Northeastern parts, including Afghanistan, also receive a sizable proportion of annual precipitation during these months.
SASCOF's winter outlook - which meets the demand for seasonal climate information about the crucial winter rains - reflects the very strong El Niño conditions now observed over the equatorial Pacific, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. These large-scale climate drivers are known to influence climate variability across South Asia.
Sea surface temperatures are above average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and across most of the Indian Ocean, according to the outlook.
The latest forecasts from several climate models indicate an increased likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions persisting during the forthcoming October-December season, along with a continued likelihood of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions.
The consensus outlook was developed by experts representing the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of all nine South Asian countries: as well as experts from WMO, WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Climate Prediction Center.
