Ex-TC Narelle Near WA, Calm Weather Elsewhere

We're going to focus in on Tuesday's weather across the country, and the talking point recently has really been Tropical Cyclone Narelle up in the far north. And that's still dancing around up over the north-west of the country on Tuesday, bringing some heavy rain and damaging wind around northern WA, and during Tuesday moving out into the Indian Ocean where it's expected to start re-intensifying. So that remains a system to watch for the week ahead.

But that north-western corner is really the only part of Australia looking at severe weather tomorrow. Mostly settled conditions in many other regions. There will be a few showers here and there around the coastline, but nothing too serious. And a few showers, including parts of south-east Queensland from about Bundaberg down to Coolangatta, including Brisbane. Just some passing showers there, nothing heavy or persistent. Could see a few millimetres throughout the course of the day. It's bright and sunny north of Bundaberg, up through Rocky, the central coast out towards Townsville as well, with southerly breezes on that coastline and a few showers expected further north for Cairns, the North Tropical Coast and the Cape York Peninsula, but nothing compared to what you had at the end of last week. Bright sunny skies expected right through interior Queensland.

A few showers also on the menu for eastern New South Wales, primarily north of Newcastle, where we could see 5 mm to 15 mm of rain, and you could get several showers throughout your day. South of Newcastle, including Sydney and Wollongong, there is a risk of showers, but it's really just one or two much lighter, much quicker showers, just bringing in low rainfall totals. Temperatures for the east coast in the mid twenties. Quite warm for the season, and we're into the thirties for western parts with sunny skies there, and Canberra seeing 26 °C and sunshine.

Quite a humid day is expected across Victoria for Tuesday, pretty warm and muggy, particularly given the time of year. Temperatures in the high twenties and low thirties for autumn, and the humidity could deliver a few showers as well, particularly when we push into the afternoon. One of those days where the risk of wet weather is pretty extensive, it covers almost all of southern Victoria and about the mountain ranges, but not everyone will see something. Melbourne certainly a pretty good chance to get some rain, particularly towards the second half of the day. Living further north, especially if you're along the Murray, the chance of any wet weather looks very slim. Just bright sunny skies.

Now, there will be rain across much of Tasmania for Tuesday, that's for sure. In the morning, rain really just around the south there, Hobart, Huonville and other southern areas. But once we get to the afternoon, patchy falls could extend statewide. When it comes to rainfall totals, those in the south will probably see the most and could easily see 10 mm to 20 mm, if not a little more than that. But across the north, those rainfall totals are expected to be quite a lot lower, just in the single digits.

South Australia really dodging most of the shower activity, which is hitting other southern parts. That will be a bright, sunny, dry day for most of the state, with temperatures a few degrees above seasonal averages. The exception to that is a couple of showers down around the lower south-east, including for Mount Gambier, but there's still quite warm weather, with a high of 27 °C. Adelaide tracking for a sunny 31 °C.

For Western Australia, we'll talk about the tropical cyclone in a second, but for the southern two-thirds of the state, it is expected to be a pretty settled Tuesday. Perth, sunny and 30 °C. A little bit windy across that west coast, but bright sunny skies as well. It is going to be cooler, cloudier and a few showers also expected down across the far south of the state, particularly around Esperance, maybe out towards Albany as well. Pilbara looking bright and warm, 40°C around Newman and Karratha.

I thought I would put on the tropical cyclone track map as it moves through the Kimberley on Monday, but then on Tuesday gets back out into the Indian Ocean and expected to almost immediately start re-intensifying back to a category two system by at least Wednesday, possibly a category three Severe Tropical Cyclone again later in the week. So this does remain a weather system to watch all week. If you live in the Kimberley, if you live in the Pilbara, even if you live in the Gascoyne, this will be close enough that it could bring some weather impacts your way through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. For the time being though, it will be the Kimberley picking up the worst of the weather on Tuesday. Chances of heavy rain and damaging wind around Kununurra maybe moving into Broome towards the back half of the day, probably not getting as far south as Port Hedland though.

And while Narelle's impacts have eased across the Top End, it is still the wet season, so we've got that usual mix of showers and thunderstorms across all northern areas, and really that could be anyone north of Tennant Creek. Meanwhile, it is back to sunny skies and temperatures in the mid thirties across the Red Centre of the country.

Thanks for sticking with me all the way through to the end. You can get more weather information through these channels here, and I'll be back with another update for you tomorrow.