Could experiencing devastating floods, widespread wildfires, or record-breaking heatwaves be linked to the way people perceive climate action? Do people in different countries attribute these events to climate change? An international team of researchers investigated how such experiences translated into support for climate regulations across the world, and published a paper on this topic in the prestigious journal Nature Climate Change.
An international team of researchers - including social psychologist Olga Białobrzeska, PhD, from the Faculty of Psychology at SWPS University in Warsaw, and psychologist Michał Parzuchowski, PhD, a professor at the Faculty of Psychology, SWPS University in Sopot - investigated how extreme weather events and their connection to climate change are linked to support for widely discussed climate regulations in 68 countries.
Extreme weather events and their high costs
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (defined as events that are rare at a particular place and time of year). The cost of extreme weather events attributable to climate change is estimated at US$143 billion per year. The impacts of extreme weather events are disproportionately felt in the Global South, which includes the less rich countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Even though the Global South is at greater risk, attribution studies and social science research on human responses to such events overwhelmingly focus on countries and populations in the Global North.
So far, global efforts to slow climate change and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events have been insufficient, which calls for more stringent climate policies. Public support for climate policies is important because such support can drive governmental policy outputs, and policymakers often respond to public demand for climate policies.
Previous studies on the relationship between experiencing extreme weather events and climate change action and beliefs have produced inconsistent findings. In particular, some studies have found that experiencing extreme weather events increases climate change belief, concern, support for climate policies, while other studies found no relationship.
Another important factor is whether people attribute extreme weather events to climate change. Recent studies have shown that people who do are more likely to perceive climate change as a risk and to engage in mitigation efforts.
How are extreme events perceived?
In the latest study, researchers combined data on exposed populations computed using the probabilistic CLIMADA risk modelling platform with global survey data on subjective attribution of extreme weather events and support for climate policies collected in the "Trust in Science and Science-related Populism (TISP)" study. They considered 68 countries.
The researchers analysed whether exposure to extreme weather events was related to climate policy support, and wherther people felt that these events were caused by climate change. They also measured the level of public support for climate policies across countries, to what degree people attributed extreme weather events to climate change across countries, and whether this attribution affected policy support.
The study showed that a significant proportion of respondents supported climate regulations and attributed severe weather events to climate change. The study's main finding was surprising: support for climate regulations was determined not by exposure to weather events as such, but by personal beliefs about the causes of these events.
The perceived links between weather events and climate change were accompanied by higher support for five widely discussed climate policies: increasing taxes on carbon-intensive foods (such as beef and dairy); increasing taxes on fossil fuels (oil, coal); expanding infrastructure for public transportation; increasing the use of sustainable energy; and protecting forested and land areas.
The study results suggest significant differences in public support depending on the type of climate action. In line with previous research, increasing carbon taxes received the lowest support (with only 22% of respondents supporting higher taxes on carbon-intensive foods, and 29% supporting higher taxes on fossil fuels). Protecting forested and land areas, by contrast, was a popular policy option, supported by 82% of respondents.
Support for climate change varies significantly between countries. The highest levels of support were recorded in African and Asian countries, average levels in Australia, Costa Rica, and the United Kingdom. Poland was slightly below the global average, while Russia and Czechia closed the list. Younger, more religious, better educated, and more affluent men, living in cities, expressed their support for climate policy more often.
Our research shows that simply experiencing extreme weather events like storms, heatwaves, or hurricanes does not automatically increase support for climate policy. What matters most is whether people attribute these events to climate change. When people see these weather events as caused by global warming, they become more supportive of climate action, regardless of how often such events actually occur in their surroundings. However, it's also possible that people who already support climate policies are more likely to blame extreme weather on climate change. We need longitudinal studies to better understand the direction of this relationship, notes Michał Parzuchowski.
The paper " Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world " was published in Nature Climate Change.
