Multilateral institutions and society at large are dangerously unprepared for the most critical and interconnected risks threatening humanity. If left unaddressed, these risks have the potential to exacerbate geopolitical tensions, societal discord, crisis response challenges and much more.
This is the key takeaway from the inaugural 2024 United Nations' Global Risk Report (UNGRR), which identifies a clear set of "Global Risk Vulnerabilities" - risks rated as highly important by respondents yet multilateral preparedness is gravely lacking.
The report is based on a global survey conducted in 2024 of over 1,100 experts and stakeholders across governments, industry, academia, and civil society, and offers a snapshot of how they perceive global risks and assess the multilateral system's readiness to address the risks. The LRF Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk (IPUR) at the National University of Singapore was the survey partner to the UN, leading the design of the survey methodology and conducting the analysis, contributing invaluable insights that helped shape key findings of the report.
Mis- and disinformation was the top global risk vulnerability followed by three high-priority risk clusters, each belonging to a single risk category and all regarded as crucial but under-addressed by current global systems:
1. Digital and cyber risks such as cybersecurity breakdown and AI
2. Health and social risks such as pandemics and mass migration
3. Resource/environmental risks such as natural hazards and biodiversity loss
When asked to identify which stakeholder group would be best placed to act on each global risk vulnerability, respondents overwhelmingly said joint action by multiple governments was the most effective response. Joint action between governments and civil society, and joint action by governments and the private sector, also consistently ranked as top choices.
"This report makes clear that our world is not just facing isolated risks, but a web of vulnerabilities that are deeply interconnected and under-addressed. It's also clear that the solutions lie not in silos but collaborative action. It is imperative that we move beyond fragmented responses and invest in more agile, inclusive, and collaborative approaches to safeguard our future," said Professor Leonard Lee, IPUR Director and contributing author of the UNGRR.
Singapore's deep interconnections to international trade and financial networks mean that it is particularly important for the country to follow trends in global risks, as any disruptions or shifts in these networks such as economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and technological changes can have significant and immediate impacts on the country's economy, stability, and long-term growth prospects.
Dr Olivia Jensen, Deputy Director at IPUR and contributing author of the UNGRR, said, "As an individual, thinking about rising global risks can leave us feeling fearful and helpless but the UNGRR suggests that the critical factor shaping outcomes is how we respond when risks materialise rather than the risks themselves. In times of great uncertainty about global trends, there is even more value in engaging as citizens and employees to signal to our leaders which actions we want them to take."
The report further outlines how interconnections between risks frequently amplify vulnerabilities. For example, climate change drives migration and political tension, technological advancements can widen inequality gaps, and mis- and disinformation can erode social cohesion and trust in governing institutions. These feedback loops can trigger cascading crises, overwhelming global and regional systems.
Insights from the report were used to develop four foresight scenarios, potentially unfolding between now and 2050. These scenarios demonstrate the potential for "global breakdown" if vulnerabilities remain unaddressed but also highlight the promise of "global breakthrough" through urgent, cooperative, and targeted action on these vulnerabilities.
Other key findings from the report:
- Across all regions, environmental risks emerged as the highest priority, with climate change inaction and large-scale pollution ranking at the top.
- Climate change inaction was seen as a strong driver of biodiversity decline, resource shortages, natural hazards, and mass migration.
- The biggest perceived barriers to action were weak governance/coordination, lack of political consensus, and low trust/accountability.
- Regional vulnerabilities showed that some areas, especially lower-income regions, faced acute threats from economic shocks, while others grappled with the destabilising impact of technology or geopolitics.
