Heavy Rain Hits Vic, Persists in Central Australia

Through this area, we could see six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 mm to 60 mm, and those are more likely as we head into the afternoon and also the evening period. Those heavy rainfall totals could produce localised flash flooding, but while most areas should see some rain, those high totals will depend on where we see thunderstorms developing, particularly if you do get more than one thunderstorm moving over the same location.

And we also do have a number of Flood Watches across central and eastern parts of Victoria. That's for the possibility of seeing flash flooding causing rivers and creeks to rise, including some of the catchments around the Melbourne area. Rainfall will gradually ease as you head late into Tuesday night and also Wednesday morning.

So let's have a look at some simulated computer model guidance now. And this is just one forecast scenario, but we can see we do have a trough lying over Victoria that's driving a lot of tropical moisture down from the north of the country. As we head through the afternoon, we can see these streaks of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the north-west, and we could see some pockets of heavy rain across Melbourne and that warning area as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

And then heading into late afternoon and evening, we may see a bit of a break in the rain, but then more heavy showers and storms coming down from the north as we head into Tuesday night, and really only clearing up from the west as we head later in the evening and into Wednesday morning.

So if you are across Melbourne and Victoria, what can we expect? First, we could see flash flooding and that could produce dangerous travel conditions, which may coincide with the afternoon and evening commute. And rivers and creeks may also start to rise, depending on where we do see those heavier showers and thunderstorms. For other areas, this rain is very welcome, particularly how dry it has been across Victoria so far this year.

So now away from Victoria, we still have that Severe Weather Warning across central parts of Australia for parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales. And through this area, we have already seen daily rainfall totals well in excess of 100 mm. That is forecast to continue, and that's because we are still expecting to see six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 mm to 90 mm, which could produce flash flooding within this warning area here.

And because the weather system responsible is just so slow moving, we are expecting this to be quite a prolonged rainfall event. For Northern Territory and Queensland, rainfall may start to ease later on Wednesday into Thursday, but for South Australia and New South Wales, heavy rain is forecast to continue well into the weekend, even pushing a little bit further south into South Australia from Friday.

And so let's have a day-by-day look at what we are expecting for Tuesday. We can see showers and storms right across Victoria and extending up into this low pressure system over the Northern Territory, with very heavy rainfall and tropical moisture wrapping into that system.

As you head into Wednesday, we do see showers or storms pushing into the southern parts of New South Wales, but heavy rainfall really continuing. And that low is just really not moving - it's almost stationary - and continues to drive down very heavy rainfall, particularly along its eastern and southern flanks.

As you head into Thursday, we could see some breaks in the rain across the Northern Territory and Queensland, but really continuing to build across parts of South Australia and north-western pockets of New South Wales. And then as we head to Friday, we could see rain dipping down into central parts of South Australia, including Adelaide.

We may see another burst of showers and thunderstorms across the south-east of the country, and we are expecting that low to continue to be quite slow moving, so heavy rain continuing right across central Australia into the weekend and even early next week.

And there are a number of Flood Watches still right across the area, as well as Flood Warnings, and that is quite dynamic. So do make sure you have the latest information before you head out.

So heavy rainfall continuing across Victoria today and central Australia in towards the weekend. We could see prolonged impacts for many areas. Do make sure you stay up to date with the latest information and warnings, and get those on our website and app, follow us on social media and, as always, please stay safe.