- Congo's economic recovery has softened in 2025 as weak public investment and energy supply disruptions weighed on the non-hydrocarbon sector. Medium-term growth prospects hinge on improvement in the business environment and increased economic diversification.
- In the context of heightened sovereign-bank nexus vulnerabilities and liquidity tensions in regional treasury markets, fiscal discipline weakened in 2025. Spending overruns together with lower oil prices exacerbated fiscal pressures. The 2026 budget plans indicate a renewed commitment to fiscal consolidation, alongside a rebalancing of spending toward pro growth and pro poor outlays.
- The Republic of Congo's capacity to repay the IMF is adequate but subject to significant risks.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2026 Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) with the Republic of Congo. [1]
The Republic of Congo's economy grew in 2024 by 2.1 and in 2025 by an estimated 2.4 percent. Weak public investments, energy supply disruptions, and lackluster hydrocarbon activity acted as impediment to stronger economic growth. The current account deficit increased in 2025 to 5.8 percent of GDP reflecting lower oil prices and high imports partly related to investments in the natural gas sector. After initial price pressures, inflation decelerated, averaging 2.6 percent over 2025.
Fiscal discipline has weakened in 2025 against the backdrop of a high sovereign-bank nexus and liquidity tensions in regional treasury markets. Congo's 2025 non-hydrocarbon primary deficit has widened to 8.7 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP. An unexpected surge in spending on goods and services crowded out capital expenditures and transfers, while revenues were compressed by lower oil prices despite stronger non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization amid improved tax administration. The approved 2026 budget aims to restore fiscal discipline and enhance spending quality through stronger non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization and a reallocation of resources towards investment and social transfers. Debt vulnerabilities have remained elevated, with total public debt estimated to have reached 97.2 percent of GDP at end-2025. Newly accumulated domestic and external arrears point to persistent weaknesses in debt management, which the authorities are gradually addressing by leveraging technical assistance from the Fund and other development partners.
The Republic of Congo's capacity to repay the IMF is assessed as adequate but subject to significant risks. Sizeable funding gaps could challenge this capacity, in the event of a decline in regional banks' appetite for Congolese treasuries and lower oil prices.
Executive Board Assessment [2]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They noted that Congo's fiscal, external, and debt vulnerabilities have intensified as a result of fiscal slippage in 2025, mounting liquidity pressures against the backdrop of a heightened sovereign-bank nexus, and slow structural reform implementation. Against this background, Directors stressed the importance of strengthening budget discipline, sustaining fiscal consolidation, and stepping up transformative structural reforms, to entrench macroeconomic stability, catalyze development partner support, and lay the foundations for higher, more resilient, and more inclusive growth. Directors urged the authorities to continue strong engagement with the Fund, which would remain critical in this effort.
Directors agreed that Congo's capacity to repay the Fund is adequate, but noted elevated risks, particularly from large rollover needs and tight regional credit markets, or in the event of a significant decline in oil prices.
Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to restore fiscal discipline and avoid future fiscal slippages. They underscored the need to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, including through broadening the tax base, streamlining tax exemptions, and strengthening tax administration. They emphasized that these efforts should be complemented by improving expenditure controls and prioritizing growth-enhancing public investment and social spending targeted to the most vulnerable. Directors also called for continued progress in public financial management, notably the full implementation of the financial management information system (SIGFIP), as a key step toward more sustainable public finances.
Directors emphasized that, with debt still classified as in distress, strengthened debt management is critical to prevent the recurrence of new arrears and ensure debt sustainability. They called for improved planning of debt service, arrears clearance, and debt issuance, supported by improved coordination among government agencies and enhanced transparency of public debt. Reliance on concessional financing is paramount.
Directors encouraged the authorities to press ahead with reforms to further strengthen governance, transparency, and anti‑corruption frameworks, to foster private sector investment and job-rich growth. They also underscored the importance of enhanced oversight of banks and enforcement of prudential standards given rising sovereign exposures.
