- IMF staff and Guinea-Bissau have reached staff-level agreement on economic policies that could support the twelfth and final review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Upon completion of the review by the IMF Executive Board, Guinea-Bissau will have access to approximately US$1.6 million.
- The staff-level agreement reflects strong program performance and continued commitment by the authorities to prudent macroeconomic policies, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability and supporting inclusive growth.
- Growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with downside risks mainly due to continued high international fuel prices. These risks call for strengthened revenue mobilization and sustained fiscal discipline.
Washington, D.C.: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Niko Hobdari, mission chief for Guinea-Bissau, held discussions in Bissau from October 21-November 3, 2026 on macroeconomic policies for the twelfth and final review of the ECF arrangement [ [1] ] . This staff-level agreement is subject to IMF Management approval and Executive Board consideration. The arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board for a total amount of SDR 28.4 million (about US$37.3 million) on January 30, 2023. The IMF Executive Board granted an augmentation of access (to 140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76 million) on November 29, 2023.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Hobdari issued the following statement:
"I am pleased to announce that we have reached staff-level agreement with the Guinea-Bissau authorities on economic and financial policies that could support the approval of the twelfth and final Review of the ECF program. Conclusion of the Review by the IMF Executive Board would enable the disbursement of SDR 1.17 million (about US$1.6 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 39.76 million (about US$53.9 million).
Growth remains strong in 2026, with real GDP projected to expand by 4.8 percent, supported by a successful cashew export campaign that has exceeded expectations -surpassing by nearly 12 percent the 2025 export volumes. Stronger customs controls have contributed to this performance, supporting farmers' incomes and economic activity. Inflation remains contained at -0.7 percent year-on-year at end-September 2026, despite higher international fuel prices, reflecting lower food prices and controlled domestic fuel prices.
Program implementation remains strong, despite challenging circumstances. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 4.2 percent of GDP in 2026, supported by higher-than-expected cashew revenues, lower-than-expected foreign-financed projects, and tighter expenditure controls, despite increased compensation to fuel importers for losses arising from controlled pump prices. Consequently, public debt is projected at about 74 percent of GDP at end-2026, largely unchanged from its level at end-2025. Going forward, sustained fiscal discipline and prudent borrowing will be essential to preserve the fiscal consolidation gains and keep public debt on a firm downward trajectory over the medium term.
The draft 2027 budget reflects the government's priorities while preserving the gains achieved under the ECF-supported program and continuing the reduction in public debt during 2027. It strikes the right balance between maintaining fiscal discipline and creating space for the investments needed to support growth and development.
Looking ahead, the economic outlook remains subject to significant downside risks, including adverse weather conditions, negative terms-of-trade and political shocks, and tighter financing conditions.
Since the beginning of the program, the country has made substantial progress in restoring fiscal discipline and strengthening macroeconomic stability, despite adverse external developments. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 8.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to a projected 4.2 percent in 2026, representing a fiscal adjustment of approximately 4 percentage points of GDP. Most importantly, the ECF-supported program has helped build stronger fiscal institutions, established a more solid foundation for domestic revenue mobilization and administration, strengthened public financial management systems, and debt management. These institutional gains have made public finances more resilient to shocks in times of adversity and have set an important foundation for advancing Guinea-Bissau's development priorities beyond its conclusion. Going forward, structural reforms should consolidate macroeconomic gains, strengthen tax compliance and public investment execution, address financial sector vulnerabilities, and develop stronger social assistance and safety nets for greater poverty reduction.
The IMF team met with transitional Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Té, Minister of Economy Mr. Djaló, Minister of Energy Mr. Mussante, Minister of Fisheries Mr. Forbs, BCEAO National Director Cassama, and other senior government officials. The team also met with representatives of public sector enterprises, as well as key bilateral and international partners.
The IMF staff thanks the authorities for their cooperation and constructive policy dialogue."
Key links:
[1] The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) provides financial assistance to countries with protracted balance of payments needs. It supports countries' economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF may also help catalyze additional foreign aid.
