- IMF staff and the South Sudanese authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on a nine-month Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), which is expected to start in August 2025, pending approval from the IMF's Management.
- The SMP aims to support South Sudan in designing and implementing policies and key reforms to strengthen its economic resilience to shocks, enhance macroeconomic stability, restore sustainability, and improve governance and transparency.
- The South Sudanese economy is projected to start recovering as oil production has resumed from the oil pipeline damaged in February 2024 due to the war in Sudan. This disruption had halted oil exports, fiscal revenues, and foreign exchange (FX) proceeds for over a year, leading to liquidity and financing constraints. The recovery is expected to be gradual and hinges on continued improvement in the security environment and political stability.
Washington, DC: Upon request from the authorities, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Ms. Mame Astou Diouf, held meetings in Juba, South Sudan, from June 11 to 20, 2025 to negotiate a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in support of the authorities' economic and financial reform program. This SMP request follows the conclusion of South Sudan's Staff Monitored Program with Board Involvement (PMB) on November 15, 2024 ( See Press Release No. 24/434 ).
At the end of the mission, Ms. Diouf issued the following statement:
"The South Sudanese authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff-level agreement on the economic and structural policies and reforms that will underpin a nine-month SMP, pending approval by the IMF's Management.
"Since early 2014, South Sudan has faced severe shocks that have exacerbated the country's post-conflict fragility and humanitarian situation. Due to the war in Sudan, the country's main oil pipeline was damaged in February 2024, halting related oil exports, fiscal revenues, and FX proceeds for over a year. The conflict also triggered a large influx of refugees, compounding an already-dire social and humanitarian situation caused by recurrent floodings, agricultural production losses, widespread food insecurity, and large-scale population displacement. The recent steep decline in international aid flows risks exacerbating the humanitarian challenges facing the country.
"The short- and medium-term economic outlook is moderately favorable and improving, contingent on a continuously improving security environment and political stability. The resumption of oil exports through the main pipeline since April 2025 is promising. While real GDP growth is projected to have contracted during FY2024/25 due to the lower oil production, it is expected to recover in FY2025/2026 as oil exports gradually strengthen. The rebound in oil exports is expected to significantly improve the current account balance, helping rebuild external buffers. The parallel foreign exchange (FX) market premium stood at 30.8 percent on June 11, 2025.
"While the budget execution of FY2024/2025 has been constrained by the financing constraints, non-oil domestic revenue collection was strong. This has allowed the resumption of government salary payments. However, structural bottlenecks partly hinder the effective distribution of salaries to civil servants due to cash shortages. For FY2025/2026, oil revenue is expected to recover substantially. Non-oil revenue will remain strong, benefiting from the continued implementation of tax policy reforms approved under the FY2024/2025 budget and broader revenue administration improvements. This will gradually ease liquidity constraints and provide some fiscal space for cautious repayment of salary arrears and a gradual increase of priority social spending and debt service repayments, while maintaining prudent fiscal management and cautious investment plans, given the continued risks to the outlook.
"Inflation has remained high. Average inflation is projected at about 143 percent in FY2024/2025, and expected to slow down in FY2025/26, thanks to ongoing tight monetary policy and a reduction in monetary financing. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast at about 58 percent of GDP in FY2024/2025, with large debt vulnerabilities. With the easing liquidity constraints, debt sustainability is projected to strengthen.
"Against this background, the South Sudanese authorities have requested a nine-month SMP to help strengthen economic resilience to shocks and foster macroeconomic stability through sound and prudent policies conducive to sustained growth. Key priorities under the SMP include:
"Restoring fiscal and public debt sustainability in the near term and laying the groundwork for positive medium-term prospects through prudent debt management and improved domestic revenue mobilization to increase fiscal space for priority spending, including salary and social programs. Enhancing spending efficiency, including through public financial and investment management reforms, will support public service delivery against the backdrop of high spending needs and limited availability of domestic and external financing.
"Maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to curb inflationary pressures and exchange rate depreciation. This includes containing monetary financing and continuing liquidity mop-up operations. While the official exchange rate has gradually decreased since August 2024 to narrow the parallel FX market premium, further policy adjustment is required to unify the official and parallel FX markets and increase FX reserves.
"Steadfast implementation of the governance and accountability reform agenda will be critical to addressing the country's sources of fragility and creating an environment conducive to strong, diversified, and sustained growth and improved living standards. This includes the governance and transparency of oil-related investment programs.
"The mission met His Excellency, Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel, Vice President and Chairperson of the Economic Cluster, the Minister of Finance and Planning, Honorable Dr. Marial Dongrin Ater, the Governor of the Bank of South Sudan, Dr. Addis Ababa Othow, and other senior government officials, as well as representatives from civil society, private sector, and development partners.
"The mission takes the opportunity to thank the authorities and stakeholders for their warm hospitality, strong cooperation, and for open and productive discussions."
