IMF Wraps Up 2025 Article IV Talks With Guyana

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana. [1]

Guyana's economic transformation is advancing strongly and broadening in scale. Rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the highest real GDP growth rate in the world, averaging 47 percent per year since 2022. Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024, while real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent, reflecting a solid broad-based performance across sectors. Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods). The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024 reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure. Driven by higher oil exports, Guyana's current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP. By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion, while the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP).

The economic outlook remains highly favorable. The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth. Positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are expected to boost the real non-oil GDP growth to an average of 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average. While inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025, the overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025. Over the medium term, the continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.

Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, additional oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including to strengthen energy resilience would further bolster Guyana's long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity would support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth. Downside risks stem from overheating pressures which, if not contained, would lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy. Commodity price volatility in a highly uncertain global environment, including from trade policy and climate shocks could also adversely affect inflation and alter the macroeconomic outlook.

Executive Board Assessment [2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Guyana's remarkable economic progress to attain high-income status, supported by rapidly expanding oil production and robust non-oil growth. They noted that Guyana's economic outlook remains highly favorable with balanced risks, strong fundamentals, and a strong external position supported by substantial accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund. They commended the authorities' commitment to balancing development needs with prudent policies to entrench macroeconomic and fiscal stability.

Directors concurred that the current fiscal stance is appropriate given development needs. They welcomed the authorities' commitment to eliminate the overall fiscal deficit over the medium term and further narrow the non-oil primary deficit to levels consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and preserving fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability. They highlighted the need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, along with regular assessments of expenditure related to reaching development objectives. They positively noted the authorities' continued efforts to strengthen public financial management as well as the low risk of debt distress given low public debt.

Directors considered the monetary policy stance as appropriately tight to help contain inflation, while noting the need for further tightening if inflation risks escalate. They saw merit in enhancing the monetary policy toolkit and deepening financial markets to help strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. They emphasized the need for maintaining consistent policies to support the stabilized exchange rate arrangement, which remains appropriate, and saw merit in assessing whether transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime over the medium term could be beneficial as Guyana's economy continues to transform.

Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to maintain financial stability and continue enhancing financial supervision, including monitoring sectoral lending exposures and related-party lending. They supported the authorities' efforts to further strengthen risk monitoring, strengthen the macroprudential framework, broaden regulatory coverage, and enhance statistics on balance sheets and real estate prices.

Directors welcomed the authorities' efforts to foster inclusive growth and economic diversification, improve the business environment, strengthen climate and energy resilience, and enhance labor market skills. They commended progress in strengthening governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries, and supported the continued efforts to strengthen them in line with international standards.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guyana will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .